Characterization of temporal patterns in the occurrence of aggressive behaviors in Bogotá (Colombia)

Aggressive behaviors are acts (through physical, verbal, or psychological means) that can cause harm, pain, or injury to another person. In Colombia, aggressive behaviors that shock public peace or that are reported to the emergency line are classified as quarrels. About a million quarrels were reported in Bogotá city during 2017–2018, and 70% of these incidents generated personal injuries or homicides. Considering these statistics, the characterization and prediction of this phenomenon adopt relevance in the security agendas of decision-makers. The identification of temporal patterns in the occurrence of aggressive behavior might help to get a better understanding of the phenomenon and develop more accurate predictive models. In this paper, we propose a characterization of temporal patterns in the occurrence of aggressive behaviors in Bogota city. The characterization is developed through predictability quantification using Colwell's predictability measures. Results suggest that aggressive acts are more predictable in some areas and that (in most cases) predictability is associated with the existence of cyclic or temporal patterns in the occurrence of this type of incident.