基于主体模型的金融部门会计方法

A. Ivershin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文讨论了将金融部门引入基于主体的模型的方法,以及对与金融系统直接互动的主体(公司和家庭)的行为进行建模的各种选择。基于主体的模型可以解释一些重要的宏观经济现象是如何通过经济中有限理性主体之间不断发展的互动网络产生的,其中互动的基本规则可以随着时间的推移内生地进化。强调了在宏观经济模型中核算金融活动对再现商业周期和预测金融危机的重要性。在基于主体的宏观经济模型中,对金融块的考虑包括对家庭储蓄和消费之间的选择建模方法的分析,对私营部门公司投资金额的决策,以及设定利率和银行监管限制的规则。建议在对家庭储蓄建模时考虑到利率方面改进方法的可能性,以及在制定公司投资计划时基于计算贴现现金流量并评估产出变化对市场价格的影响的长期规划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Approaches to Accounting for the Financial Sector in Agent-Based Modeling
The article discusses approaches to introducing the financial sector into agent-based models, as well as various options for modeling the behavior of agents (firms and households) directly interacting with the financial system. Agent-based models can explain how some important macroeconomic phenomena can be generated by evolving networks of interactions between boundedly rational agents in economies, where the underlying rules of interaction can evolve endogenously over time. The importance of accounting for financial activity in macroeconomic models for reproducing business cycles and predicting financial crises is emphasized. Consideration of financial blocks in macroeconomic agent-based models includes an analysis of approaches to modeling the choice between household savings and consumption, making decisions about the amount of investment by private sector firms, as well as the rules for setting interest rates and regulatory limits by banks. Possibilities for improving approaches in terms of taking into account interest rates when modeling household savings are proposed, as well as long-term planning based on the calculation of discounted cash flows with an assessment of the impact of changes in output on market prices when forming firms’ investment plans.
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