Missing “Get Tough” Risk Factors

Burnham and Anderson observed that while a model can never be “truth,” a model might be ranked on a continuum from very useful, to useful, to somewhat useful, to essentially useless. The prevailing Risk-Needs-Responsivity (RNR) model is essentially useless for two reasons: 1) there is no difference in recidivism between Second Chance Grant recipients and non-Second Chance recipients, and 2) our probation and parole numbers have been increasing not decreasing as jurisdictions, unquestioningly, adhere to the RNR model's principles and tenets. The fundamental attribution bias of overestimating the role of person-factors while underestimating the role of each jurisdictional environment is a key aspect of RNR risk assessment algorithms. Thus, the RNR model and its associated risk assessment instruments have no ecological validity. More specifically, neither attends to variations in “Get Tough” jurisdictions policy. Yet, “Get Tough” variables are unacknowledged moderator variables.