人群中的“专家”:经验丰富的投资者在众筹市场中的作用

Keongtae Kim, S. Viswanathan
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引用次数: 150

摘要

在线众筹市场促进了资源、专业知识和信号的分离,这是交易的三个重要组成部分。本研究考察了早期投资者的专业知识本身是否可以作为人群中其他投资者的可靠质量信号,如果可以,在什么条件下可以。使用移动应用众筹市场中个人投资的数据集,我们发现具有专业知识的早期投资者-特别是具有应用开发专业知识的投资者和具有投资专业知识的投资者-对人群中的后期投资者具有不成比例的影响。研究发现,拥有应用开发专业知识的投资者可能对产品有更好的了解,他们对“概念应用”(发布前阶段的应用)更有影响力,而拥有投资专业知识、更了解市场表现的投资者对“实时应用”(已经在市场上销售的应用)更有影响力。我们的研究结果表明,这个市场上的大多数投资者——人群——尽管缺乏经验,但在识别和利用早期投资者潜在专业知识的细微差别方面,他们的能力相当老练——这些信息信号与他们所面临的不确定性的具体性质很好地结合在一起。在检查应用的事后表现时,我们发现拥有“专家”投资者的应用与事后销售呈正相关。我们还发现,这些“专家”有能力选择更好的应用进行投资,使他们的投资选择对大众来说是可靠的质量信号。人们普遍认为众筹市场是专业知识民主化的手段,是传统专家主导机制的替代品,与此相反,我们的研究结果表明,拥有专业知识的个人的参与可能有利于这些市场。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The 'Experts' in the Crowd: The Role of Experienced Investors in a Crowdfunding Market
Online crowdfunding markets facilitate the unbundling of resources, expertise, and signals – the three important components of a transactions. This study examines whether an early investor’s expertise per se, serves as a credible signal of quality for the other investors in the crowd and if so under what conditions. Using a data set on individual investments in a crowdfunding market for mobile applications, we find that early investors with expertise – particularly, investors with app development expertise and investors with investment expertise - have a disproportionate influence on later investors in the crowd. Investors with app development expertise who are likely to have a better knowledge of the product are found to be more influential for “concept apps” (apps in the pre-release stage), while investors with investment expertise with a better knowledge of market performance are found to be more influential for “live apps” (apps that are already being sold in the market). Our findings show that the majority of investors in this market – the crowd – although inexperienced, are rather sophisticated in their ability to identify and exploit nuanced differences in the underlying expertise of the early investors – informational signals that align well with the specific nature of uncertainty they face. In examining the ex-post performance of apps, we find that apps with “expert” investors are positively associated with ex-post app sales. We also find that these “experts” have the ability to select better apps to invest in, making their investment choices credible signals of quality for the crowd. Contrary to popular perceptions of crowdfunding markets as means for democratizing expertise and as substitutes for traditional expert-dominated mechanisms, our findings indicate that the participation by individuals with expertise can be beneficial to these markets.
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