具有交错利率的部门DSGE模型中的宏观审慎政策相互作用

Marc Hinterschweiger, Kunal Khairnar, Tolga Ozden, Thomas Stratton
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们按照Clerc等人(2015)的方法开发了一个两部门DSGE模型,其中包含详细的银行业,以评估宏观审慎工具(最低、反周期和部门资本要求,以及贷款对价值的限制)对关键宏观经济和金融变量的影响。银行业的特点是住宅抵押贷款和企业贷款受到交错利率的约束(la Calvo(1983)),这是由于固定利率贷款合同导致贷款利率的缓慢变动所推动的。模型中的其他扭曲包括有限责任、破产成本和偏离监管资本的惩罚成本。我们基于1998年第一季度至2016年第二季度的英国季度数据,使用贝叶斯方法估计模型。我们的贡献是三重的。我们表明:(i)宏观审慎工具的协调可能具有改善福利的效果,(ii)宏观审慎工具本可以改善一些宏观经济指标,但在我们的模型中,并没有阻止全球金融危机,(iii)交错利率可能会改变通过利率起作用的宏观审慎工具的传导。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Macroprudential Policy Interactions in a Sectoral DSGE Model with Staggered Interest Rates
We develop a two-sector DSGE model with a detailed banking sector along the lines of Clerc et al (2015) to assess the impact of macroprudential tools (minimum, countercyclical and sectoral capital requirements, as well as a loan-to-value limit) on key macroeconomic and financial variables. The banking sector features residential mortgages and corporate lending subject to staggered interest rates à la Calvo (1983), which is motivated by the sluggish movement of lending rates due to fixed interest rate loan contracts. Other distortions in the model include limited liability, bankruptcy costs and penalty costs for deviations from regulatory capital. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods based on quarterly UK data over 1998 Q1–2016 Q2. Our contributions are threefold. We show that: (i) co-ordination of macroprudential tools may have a welfare-improving effect, (ii) macroprudential tools would have improved some macroeconomic indicators but, within our model, not have prevented the Global Financial Crisis, (iii) staggered interest rates may alter the transmission of macroprudential tools that work through interest rates.
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