中国石油企业海外资产收购是否过高?

Xiaoyi Mu
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文对中国石油企业在海外资产收购中是否比国际石油企业“出价过高”进行了定量和定性分析。通过控制油价和一些已知会影响油气项目估值的资产和交易特定属性,我们发现,尽管中国公司在2001-2008年期间没有比国际石油公司支付过高的价格,但有统计显著证据表明,他们在2009-2016年期间(主要是2009-2013年)支付过高的价格。反事实分析表明,中国公司在2008年后为同样的资产支付的费用平均比国际石油公司高出64%。对行业专家的采访和定性分析表明,多付款主要是由于缺乏经验和在高油价时期急于完成项目而导致的一系列错误,而不是出于对能源安全或其他政治考虑的担忧。调查结果引发了人们对中国国有企业效率和公司治理的担忧,表明有必要进一步改革。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Have the Chinese National Oil Companies Paid Too Much in Overseas Asset Acquisition?
This paper provides both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of whether the Chinese oil companies have “overpaid” than international oil companies in overseas asset acquisitions. By controlling oil price and a number of asset- and deal-specific attributes that are known to affect the valuation of oil and gas projects, we find that while the Chinese companies did not overpay than international oil companies for the period of 2001-2008, there is statistically significant evidence that they overpaid during the 2009-2016 period (mainly 2009-2013). The counterfactual analysis indicates that the Chinese companies paid, on average, 64 percent more than what an international oil company would have paid for the same assets during the post-2008 period. Interviews with industry experts and qualitative analysis suggest that the overpayment mainly results from a series of mistakes due to lack of experience and rush for projects in a period of high oil prices rather than concerns about energy security or other political considerations. The results raise concerns over the efficiency and corporate governance of Chinese state-owned companies, pointing to the need for further reforms.
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