On Churn and Social Contagion

Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs) are persistent virtual environments where millions of players interact in an online manner. We study the problem of player churn and social contagion using MMORPG game logs by analyzing the impact of a node's churn behavior on its immediate neighborhood or group. The two key research questions in this paper are - When an active node, ego, becomes dormant, what is the impact on the activity behavior of ego's immediate neighbor, alter, 1) based on ego's characteristics and ego's relationship with alter and 2) based on the activity behavior of alter's remaining neighbors. We use a supervised learning framework to study the impact of player churn and social contagion. Experimental results show that the classification models perform substantially better than random for both the research problems. Finally, we use a data-driven approach to propose a player typology based on degree of socialization and analyze churn behavior among these player types. Experimental results show that the loner player type is much more likely to churn than the socializer player types and as the degree of socialization decreases among socializers, the propensity to churn increases.