俄罗斯联邦空间经济发展不平衡与增长要素分化

N. Ibragimov, A. I. Dushenin
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摘要

本文探讨了俄罗斯联邦的空间发展问题,分析了2008-2015年期间俄罗斯联邦区域宏观经济指标空间结构变化的原因和趋势,这些变化见证了俄罗斯经济发展的周期性,并评估了这一时期的区域增长因素以及俄罗斯联邦区域进一步发展的潜力。本研究的重点是2008-2015年期间俄罗斯联邦区的经济,其特点是俄罗斯经济发展的周期性。如果只分析衰退时期,几乎不可能获得有关经济增长因素的详细信息。与此同时,仅仅分析增长期并没有考虑到危机发生的可能性及其后果。为了更详细的分析,我们将研究的时间边界划分为2008-2010年、2010-2013年和2013-2015年三个时期。这项工作旨在分析2008-2015年期间俄罗斯联邦各联邦区宏观经济指标结构的变化,确定其变化的原因和趋势,研究2008-2015年地区增长的因素,并评估俄罗斯联邦各地区进一步发展的潜力。研究工具包包括结构变化的分析方法以及对数和比例除法的方法。在考虑固定价格下的国内生产总值增长率和研究总劳动生产率增长因素时,都使用了结构变化分析。当产量增长除以每个因素的增长时,使用对数除法(例如,分解当前价格的GRP增长)。采用比例划分法评估区域产业对整体经济增长的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Uneven Development of Spatial Economy of the Russian Federation and Differentiation of Growth Factors
The article discusses the problems of spatial development of the Russian Federation, analyzes the causes and trends of changes in the spatial structure of macroeconomic indicators by federal districts in the period 2008–2015 which witnessed the cyclical nature of economic development in Russia, and assesses the factors of regional growth for the period under consideration and the potential for further development of the Russian federal districts. The research focuses on the economy of the Russian federal districts in the period 2008–2015 characterized by the cyclical nature of the development of the Russian economy. On analyzing the periods of recession alone, it is almost impossible to obtain detailed information about the factors of economic growth. At the same time, analyzing merely the periods of growth does not take into account the possibilities of crises and their consequences. For a more detailed analysis, the time boundaries of the study were divided into three periods 2008–2010, 2010–2013 and 2013–2015.The work is aimed at analyzing the changes in the structures of macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation by federal districts in the period 2008–2015, determining the reasons and tendencies of their changes, studying the factors of regional growth in 2008–2015, and assessing the potential for further development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The research toolkit includes the methods for analyzing structural changes as well as the methods of logarithmic and proportional division. The analysis of structural changes was used both when considering GRP growth rate at constant prices and when studying the factors of growth at total labor productivity. Logarithmic division was used when dividing the yield rises by the rises of each of the factors (e.g. decomposition of GRP rises in current prices). Proportional division was used to assess the impact of regional industries on economic growth as a whole.
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