基于MATLAB/Simulink的能源需求建模与神经网络预测

A. A. Khan, A. Minai, L. Devi, Qamar Alam, R. Pachauri
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引用次数: 3

摘要

由于人口的快速增长,电力负荷急剧增加,而用于发电的资产却日益减少。因此,有必要正确预测负荷,并制定适当的计划来处理这种情况。可以预期,该电源管理结构可以提高电力供需的稳定性。本文提出的流量调节器主要基于能源供需模型的规则。为了实现能源管理,本文提出了一种预测住宅建筑未来用电量的方法。负荷预测允许电力应用在购买和生产电力,负荷切换和基础设施发展方面做出关键选择。然而,随着电力管制的放松,负荷预测变得尤为重要。短时负荷预测(STLF)可以帮助估计负荷流并做出可以避免过载的选择。以MATLAB仿真预测为目的,利用人工神经网络(ANN)对实际负荷和预测负荷进行评估。本文采用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)计算预测性能。最后,将预测结果与神经回归方法进行了比较。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Energy Demand Modelling and ANN Based Forecasting using MATLAB/Simulink
Due to the rapid population growth, the load of electricity has increased sharply, but in comparison the assets used in the power generation are decreasing day by day. So there is a need to correctly predict the load and make a proper plan to handle the situation. It can be expected that the power management structure can be used to improve the stability of power supply and demand. The proposed flow regulator is mainly based on the rules of demand supply modeling of energy. In order to manage energy, this paper provides a method for predicting future power use of residential structures. Load forecasting allows an electric powered application to make crucial choices on buying and producing electric power, load switching and infrastructure development. However, with the deregulation of the power, load forecasting is even extra crucial. Short time load forecasting (STLF) can assist to estimate load flows and to make choices which could save overloading. MATLAB Simulation for the purpose of forecasting, using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is performed for the assessment of real and forecasted load. The predicted performance is calculated with root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in this paper. At the end, the predicted performance is also compared with the regression methods using neural regression.
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