Urban expansion and evolution prediction of Jinan city based on remote sensing and GIS technology

Urban expansion is a complex economic and social process and has been a hot topic not only in the management of sustainable development but also in the fields of remote sensing and geographic information science (GIS). Jinan is chosen to be the study area, as a fresh case, has not been systematically studied so far on the published literature especially its urban growth pattern and evolution prediction. Based on remote sensing and GIS technology, urban land of the year 1979, 1987, 1995, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2008 are extracted from Multi-original remote sensing data ( Landsat MSS/ TM/ETM+, CBERS02B) and analyzed by GIS. Time scale of this research ranges from 1979 to 2008, and is divided into 6 periods (1979∼1987, 1987∼1995, 1995∼2000, 2000∼2002, 2002 ∼ 2004, 2004∼2008). (1) Firstly, preprocessing such as radiant calibration and geometry extract calibration was executed on the multisource remote sensing data. (2) Secondly, based on the software platform MGE and ArcGIS, urban land was extracted. (3) Thirdly, the spatial-temporal regulation and pattern characteristics of Jinan from the year 1979 to 2008 were quantitatively described in details by quoting indices such as urban expansion intensity, centroid, compact degree index etc. (4) Spatial expansion characteristics of Jinan were analyzed in different periods. (5) Urban expansion was predicted by using mode GM (1, 1). The systematic research of urban expansion pattern and evolution prediction in Jinan could be beneficial to local planning system.