The Financial Feasibility of the National Health Insurance Program of the Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation can feasibly and sustainably replace government in funding health care. We mathematically projected government and PhilHealth health expenditures from 2010 to 2040. Determinants of health expenditure and revenue growth were size and structure of the population, real growth rate, GDP growth, labor force structure and premium rate contribution by type of membership. Results showed that PhilHealth can raise sufficient revenues from member premium contributions to cover long-term government health expenditure in addition to its own provided that premiums are raised by 50% and 75% in 2035 and 2040, respectively. Yet, projected substantial growth of health expenditure calls for appropriate methods of control such as application of demand-side constraints; determination of the most cost-effective packages of health services and public health programs; and emphasis on disease prevention and health promotion.