减少偏倚因子分布,以减少小样本量的似然估计偏差

Moshe Felix Barmoav
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引用次数: 0

摘要

提出了一种减少小样本最大似然估计偏差的新方法。新方法是基于一个特殊情况下的fr切特分布。在本文中,frachimet分布的特殊情况现在被称为“新分布”和/或“减少偏倚因子”分布。“新分布”的累积分布函数(CDF)是减少分布参数估计偏差的因素,在使用最大似然估计(MLE)时,特别是对于小样本量,可以提高数据分析和可靠性/寿命预测精度。新的分布是非常灵活和通用的两个参数,即规模和形状,以适应相关的场景。该函数支持任何生命分布,如威布尔,正态,对数正态和或其他分布的需要。新的分布能够描述大多数校正因子公式,其中包括著名的校正因子,如威廉·戈塞特(参考文献1、2和3)的正态分布和对数正态分布的C4(参考文献1、2和3),他是吉尼斯啤酒厂的首席酿酒师。威廉·戈塞特还发明了统计分布分析的蒙特卡罗模拟方法。Robert B. Abernethy博士后来使用蒙特卡罗对威布尔MLE中值和Mean Beta分别进行了大约C4^3.5和C4^6的修正,见(参考文献1、2和3)。作者进行了大量蒙特卡罗模拟和转置线性回归,为本文的结论提供了基础。本文的结果适用于但不限于Beta值为0.5 ~ 10的完整样本,1200组样本为2 ~ 300。作者正在使用新方法来减少审查数据的最大似然偏差,但作者并不鼓励对审查数据进行额外的研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reduced Bias Factor Distribution to reduce the likelihood estimate bias of small sample sizes
A new method is developed by the author to reduce the bias of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) with small sample sizes. The new method is based on a special case of the Fréchet distribution. The special case of the Fréchet distribution is now referred as the “New Distribution” in this article and/or the “Reduce Bias Factor” Distribution. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the “New Distribution” is the factor that decreases the bias in distribution parameter estimates to improve data analysis and reliability/lifetime prediction accuracy when using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) particularly for small sample sizes. The new distribution is very flexible and versatile with two parameters, i.e. Scale and Shape to fit for relevant scenarios. This function support any life distributions such as Weibull, Normal, Log Normal and or others distributions as needed. The new distribution is capable of describing most of the correction factor formulas among them the well known correction factors such as the C4 for Normal and Log Normal Distributions Sigma by William Gossett (Refs. 1, 2, and 3), who was the Chief Brewmaster for the Guinness Breweries. William Gossett also invented the Monte Carlo simulation method for statistical distribution analysis. Dr. Robert B. Abernethy used Monte Carlo later to develop corrections for the Weibull MLE Median and Mean Beta approximately C4^3.5 and C4^6 respectively, see (Refs. 1, 2, and 3). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and transposed linear regressions by the author provide the basis for the conclusions in this paper. The results herein apply to complete samples starting from, but not limited to, Beta values of 0.5 up to Beta value of 10 with 1200 sets of samples of 2 up to 300. The author is using the new method to reduce the MLE bias with censored data, never the less the author does encourage additional research into censored data.
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