基于多元logistic模型的商业银行信用风险研究

Jiexin Lu, Yongzheng Tong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文建立了一个面向中小企业的银行信贷决策系统。本文对已有信用记录和信誉评级的企业进行风险量化,建立风险评级模型。对123家有信用记录和信用评级的企业的具体财务状况进行量化,并建立模型。本文通过EXCEL和MATLAB软件对大量原始数据进行处理和整合,得到6个指标,然后通过主成分分析提取出3个具有代表性的主成分因子,作为自变量进行二元Logistic回归分析,得出企业是否违约的评价,建立违约筛选模型,将企业违约等级评定为IV级;然后对无违约企业进行多元有序Logistic回归分析。建立风险等级细化模型,进一步细化非违约企业评级,即i级、ii级和iii级。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on credit risk of commercial banks based on multiple logistic model
This paper establishes a bank credit decision-making system for small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper quantifies the risk of enterprises with existing credit records and reputation ratings and establishes a risk rating model. The specific financial situation of 123 enterprises with credit records and credit rating is quantified and a model is established. In this paper, a large number of original data are processed and integrated by EXCEL and MATLAB software to get six indexes, and then three representative principal component factors are extracted by principal component analysis, which are used as independent variables for binary Logistic regression analysis, the evaluation of whether the enterprise is in breach of contract is obtained, the default screening model is established, the grade of the enterprise in breach of contract is rated as IV, and then the enterprise without default is analyzed by multivariate ordered Logistic regression analysis. Establish a risk level refinement model to further refine the non-default corporate rating, that is, I-level, II-level and III-level.
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