基于支持向量回归的连续蚁群优化金融预测模型

Wei‐Chiang Hong, Yu-Fen Chen, Peng Chen, Yi-Hsuan Yeh
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引用次数: 12

摘要

传统的时间序列预测模型难以捕捉非线性模式。支持向量回归(SVR)已成功地用于求解非线性回归和时间序列问题。然而,支持向量回归模型的参数确定能够满足预测精度。遗传算法和模拟退火算法等进化算法被用于参数选择,但这些算法经常陷入局部最优的问题。本研究使用连续蚁群优化算法在SVR模型中选择合适的参数,在预测精度持续提高的区域鼓励局部搜索,然后自动催化收敛到有希望的区域。从现有文献的汇率预测的数值例子被用来比较所提出的模型的性能。实验结果表明,该模型优于文献中其他方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Continuous ant colony optimization algorithms in a support vector regression based financial forecasting model
Traditional time series forecasting models are difficult to capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector regression (SVR) has been successfully used to solve nonlinear regression and times series problems. However, parameters determination for a SVR model is competent to the forecasting accuracy. Several evolutionary algorithms, such as genetic algorithms and simulated annealing algorithms have been used to the parameters selection, however, these algorithms often suffer the problem of being trapped in local optimum. This investigation used continuous ant colony optimization algorithms in a SVR model for selecting suitable parameters, in which encouraging local search in areas where forecasting accuracy improvement continues to be made, then, autocatalytically converge to promising regions. Numerical examples of exchange rates forecasting from an existing literature are employed to compare the performance of the proposed model. Experiment results show that the proposed model outperforms the other approaches in the literature.
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