巴西部分半干旱城市降雨时间序列趋势分析

Freds Fernando Alves De Almeida, J. Cantalice, Débora Teresa Da Rocha Gomes Ferreira De Almeida, Werônica Meira De Souza, Vijay Singh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化是当今科学界经常关注的问题,虽然气候变化是全球性的,但其影响往往因地区而异。本研究的目的是通过巴西伯南布哥州一些半干旱城市的降雨来确定气候变化趋势。采用Mann-Kendall和Sen-slope趋势检验来检测降雨时间序列的可能趋势。此外,Pettitt检验还用于识别以时间序列断点为代表的降水记录的突变。结果显示了15个城市降雨的气候变化趋势,在一些地方观察到雨季的减少趋势,这是一个严重的问题,影响了供水,抑制了农业活动,从而使人口生活困难,因为在这个短暂的雨季,该地区的水库得到了补充。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Trend analysis in rainfall time series in some Brazilian semiarid cities
Nowadays, the climate changes are a frequent issue of the scientific community, and although it occurs on a global scale, its impacts often vary from region to region. The objective of this research was to identify the climatic change trends from rainfall in some Brazilian semiarid cities of the Pernambuco state. The Mann-Kendall and Sen-slope trend tests were applied to detect possible trends in the rainfall time series. In addition, the Pettitt test was also applied to identify abrupt changes in precipitation records represented by break points in the time series. The results showed trends of climatic changes in rainfall in fifteen cities, being observed in some localities the decrease of the tendencies in the rainy season, representing a serious problem that compromises the water supply, suppresses agricultural activities, thus making life difficult for the population, because it's in this short rainy season that the water reservoirs of the region are replenished.
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