运用SWOT分析法、层次分析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法确定伊朗马什哈德费尔多西大学危机管理的战略定位

فر سمیراابراهیمی, زهرا ناجی عظیمی, فریبرز رحیم نیا
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引用次数: 1

摘要

导读:由于其特殊的地理位置,伊朗一直被认为是世界上最容易发生事故的地区之一。因此,在组织中特别关注危机管理以及识别相关的优势、劣势、机会和威胁是至关重要的。方法:本研究旨在确定马什哈德费尔多西大学作为该国东部卓越中心的自然灾害后危机管理战略定位。为此,找出了影响高校危机管理的内外部因素。在此基础上,结合SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats)分析法、AHP分析法和Monte Carlo模拟法,确定了该校在进攻性、防御性、适应性和偶然性四个位置中的战略定位,并提出了相应的策略。统计人群为大学设施专家和管理人员,通过有目的抽样,从中抽取10例。结果:根据所得结果,各子标准的最高权重如下:符合大学校园新建筑所需的技术和安全标准(优势),缺乏处理不同建筑中各种危机的具体计划(劣势),消防站靠近大学校园(机会),监督建筑改造的组织优柔寡断,包括省政府和道路和城市发展办公室(威胁)。结论:本研究结果表明,通过分析内部和外部因素,可以确定企业的战略定位。此外,在四个战略位置中,发现马什哈德Ferdowsi大学在45.4%的案例中采用了进攻性危机管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Combination of SWOT Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Monte Carlo Simulation to Identify the Strategic Positioning of Crisis Management at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
INTRODUCTION: Iran has long been recognized as one of the most accident-prone areas in the world due to its special geographical location. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to devote special attention to crisis management in organizations and the identification of related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. METHODS: The present study aimed to identify the strategic positioning of crisis management after natural disasters at the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as the center of excellence in the east of the country. To this end, the internal and external factors which militate against university crisis management were identified. Thereafter, the strategic positioning of this university was determined among four positions, namely offensive, defensive, adaptive, and contingency, using a combination of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Monte Carlo simulation, and strategies were presented. The statistical population were university facility experts and managers among whom 10 cases were selected by purposive sampling. FINDINGS: Based on the obtained results, the highest weights in different sub-criteria were as follows: compliance with the required technical and safety standards in new constructions of the university campus (strength), the absence of any specific plan for dealing with various types of crises in different buildings (weakness), the proximity of the fire station to the university campus (opportunity), and indecisiveness of organizations supervising building retrofitting, including provincial government and Roads and Urban Development Office (threat). CONCLUSION: The results of the present study demonstrated that strategic positioning can be identified by analyzing internal and external factors. Moreover, among the four strategic positions, it was found that the Ferdowsi University of Mashhad adopted an offensive crisis management strategy in 45.4% of the cases.
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