Do Remittances Promote Labor Productivity in Mexico? A DOLS and FMOLS Analysis, 1970-2017

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of remittance flows on economic output and labor productivity for Mexico during the 1970-2017 period. The findings suggest that remittance flows to Mexico have a positive and significant effect on economic output and labor productivity. The paper is organized as follows: First, it gives an overview of remittance flows in absolute terms, relative to GDP, in comparison to FDI inflows, and in terms of their regional destination. Next, the paper reviews the growing literature that assesses the impact of remittances on investment spending and economic growth. Third, to motivate the discussion of the empirical results, the paper presents a simple endogenous growth model that explicitly incorporates the potential impact of remittance flows on economic output and labor productivity. Fourth, it presents a modified empirical counterpart to the simple model that tests for unit roots and performs both a Johansen cointegration test and a Gregory and Hansen cointegration test with an endogenously determined regime shift. FMOLS and DOLS long-run estimates for the period in question suggest that remittance flows to Mexico have a positive and significant effect, albeit small, on both the levels of economic output and labor productivity. The concluding section summarizes the major results and discusses potential avenues for future research on this important topic. JEL Classification numbers: C10, F01, 010, 054. Keywords: ADF unit root test, DOLS, FDI inflows, FMOLS, Gregory-Hansen cointegration single-break test, Gross fixed capital formation, Johansen Cointegration test, KPSS no unit root test, labor productivity, and remittance flows.