{"title":"点击诱饵算法时代的流行病&我们的集体良知","authors":"R. Adhikari, P. Kansakar","doi":"10.3126/gmj.v2i1.26978","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The year 2020 has largely been about COVID-19. The zoonotic virus found in bats causing respiratory disease that originated from Wuhan, China towards the end of 2019, has engulfed the whole world and many regions are still reeling from recurring waves. At the time of this writing, the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard1shows that there has been over 79 million cases worldwide with north of 1.7 million deaths. Much of western Europe is in or bracing for strict lockdown during the end of year holiday season, including Sweden which had adopted an approach of attaining “herd immunity” before vaccines, which was bound to fail, and it did. For the context – when Wuhan, the COVID-19 ground zero, went into lockdown amid growing number of cases and fatalities, the action seemed excessive. The official death toll1in the most populous country in the world, China, as of this writing is less than 5000, whereas daily deaths in the US is topping 3000 consistently in the new wave seen since the start of December. Let those numbers sink in first. A pandemic is like fashion – ever evolving and ever revolving. The difference is, of course, in the frequency that great pandemics occur after every few generations. The Spanish flu from a century ago is regarded as the last true pandemic. How COVID-19 differs from the historical contexts of pandemic is how science has evolved - not just in terms of diagnosis and management, but how mass traveling and modern means of transportation has allowed an epidemic to turn pandemic in a relatively short duration. And our voracity in consuming news, and more importantly “views” not just from traditional media outlets but from any ‘fool with a tool’ in this age of social media and influencers has only amplified this paradox. The net worth of a news/ event is no longer in the content but is a function of social media reach, click baiting, and ever so improving artificial intelligence algorithms. The digital footprints we leave behind with each keystroke or click is determining what social media post, news or opinion pieces we are fed. As such, for the same news, there exists more than one “reality” – in the COVID-19 context, each of the subsets of pro and anti-masks, pro and anti-vaccines have their own reality bubbles.And the biggest lesson that this pandemic has taught us – without political will or action, science alone is a lame duck. The New England Journal of Medicine2with over 200 years of history wrote a scathing editorial, first of its kind in its history, to denounce science denying rhetoric, specifically summing up the Trump administration’s approach to COVID-19 as “they have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.” The Lancet3went even further urging US voters to opt for a change in leadership. Many other traditional publications broke ranks to voice their genuine concerns regarding the denial of existence and mishandling of the pandemic. Unprecedented times called for unprecedented actions. These voices of Science had a job to do. Whether one believes or belittles the recommendations of masks, hand washing, and physical distancing to avoid contracting the virus, the world as we knew and lived in has changed so much during these troubled times. The shortcomings or otherwise of US policies/ healthcare system is not the point of contention here, but the actions of a government regarded by many as the most powerful in the world in terms of resources, and seen as benchmark by smaller and poorer countries. It is easy for those in authority in resource scarce countries like Nepal to point their finger at the US and proclaim “even the mighty USA has been so hapless, we are but a poor country”.Throughout evolution, animals have relied on their ‘senses’ of sight/ sound/ smell to stay ahead of their predators and survive. During this pandemic, us humans, are collectively in need of the rarest commodity of them all, “common sense” within ourselves and more importantly of those around us to survive. Amidst all the gloom and doom, a new dawn is nigh. Highly effective vaccines are being rolled out. With newer more virulent strains being reported from different parts of the world in regular intervals, the efficacy of these vaccines could be different than initially reported. The biggest challenge now for vaccines manufacturers, countries, and the WHO is to ensure the logistics of it all so that the vaccines’ coverage worldwide is enough to ensure herd immunity, and there remains no sizeable population pocket of endemicity. Let’s hope that common sense prevails and world leaders are more receptive of scientific reasonings and evidences and collectively work to quell the unrelenting march of this pandemic. It’s not over till it’s over.","PeriodicalId":314361,"journal":{"name":"Grande Medical Journal","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pandemic in the age of click bait algorithms & our collective conscience\",\"authors\":\"R. Adhikari, P. Kansakar\",\"doi\":\"10.3126/gmj.v2i1.26978\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The year 2020 has largely been about COVID-19. The zoonotic virus found in bats causing respiratory disease that originated from Wuhan, China towards the end of 2019, has engulfed the whole world and many regions are still reeling from recurring waves. At the time of this writing, the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard1shows that there has been over 79 million cases worldwide with north of 1.7 million deaths. Much of western Europe is in or bracing for strict lockdown during the end of year holiday season, including Sweden which had adopted an approach of attaining “herd immunity” before vaccines, which was bound to fail, and it did. For the context – when Wuhan, the COVID-19 ground zero, went into lockdown amid growing number of cases and fatalities, the action seemed excessive. The official death toll1in the most populous country in the world, China, as of this writing is less than 5000, whereas daily deaths in the US is topping 3000 consistently in the new wave seen since the start of December. Let those numbers sink in first. A pandemic is like fashion – ever evolving and ever revolving. The difference is, of course, in the frequency that great pandemics occur after every few generations. The Spanish flu from a century ago is regarded as the last true pandemic. How COVID-19 differs from the historical contexts of pandemic is how science has evolved - not just in terms of diagnosis and management, but how mass traveling and modern means of transportation has allowed an epidemic to turn pandemic in a relatively short duration. And our voracity in consuming news, and more importantly “views” not just from traditional media outlets but from any ‘fool with a tool’ in this age of social media and influencers has only amplified this paradox. The net worth of a news/ event is no longer in the content but is a function of social media reach, click baiting, and ever so improving artificial intelligence algorithms. The digital footprints we leave behind with each keystroke or click is determining what social media post, news or opinion pieces we are fed. As such, for the same news, there exists more than one “reality” – in the COVID-19 context, each of the subsets of pro and anti-masks, pro and anti-vaccines have their own reality bubbles.And the biggest lesson that this pandemic has taught us – without political will or action, science alone is a lame duck. The New England Journal of Medicine2with over 200 years of history wrote a scathing editorial, first of its kind in its history, to denounce science denying rhetoric, specifically summing up the Trump administration’s approach to COVID-19 as “they have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.” The Lancet3went even further urging US voters to opt for a change in leadership. Many other traditional publications broke ranks to voice their genuine concerns regarding the denial of existence and mishandling of the pandemic. Unprecedented times called for unprecedented actions. These voices of Science had a job to do. Whether one believes or belittles the recommendations of masks, hand washing, and physical distancing to avoid contracting the virus, the world as we knew and lived in has changed so much during these troubled times. The shortcomings or otherwise of US policies/ healthcare system is not the point of contention here, but the actions of a government regarded by many as the most powerful in the world in terms of resources, and seen as benchmark by smaller and poorer countries. It is easy for those in authority in resource scarce countries like Nepal to point their finger at the US and proclaim “even the mighty USA has been so hapless, we are but a poor country”.Throughout evolution, animals have relied on their ‘senses’ of sight/ sound/ smell to stay ahead of their predators and survive. During this pandemic, us humans, are collectively in need of the rarest commodity of them all, “common sense” within ourselves and more importantly of those around us to survive. Amidst all the gloom and doom, a new dawn is nigh. Highly effective vaccines are being rolled out. With newer more virulent strains being reported from different parts of the world in regular intervals, the efficacy of these vaccines could be different than initially reported. The biggest challenge now for vaccines manufacturers, countries, and the WHO is to ensure the logistics of it all so that the vaccines’ coverage worldwide is enough to ensure herd immunity, and there remains no sizeable population pocket of endemicity. Let’s hope that common sense prevails and world leaders are more receptive of scientific reasonings and evidences and collectively work to quell the unrelenting march of this pandemic. It’s not over till it’s over.\",\"PeriodicalId\":314361,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Grande Medical Journal\",\"volume\":\"59 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Grande Medical Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3126/gmj.v2i1.26978\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Grande Medical Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3126/gmj.v2i1.26978","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
摘要
2020年主要是关于COVID-19的一年。2019年底,在蝙蝠身上发现的导致呼吸道疾病的人畜共患病毒起源于中国武汉,目前已席卷全球,许多地区仍在反复出现的波浪中挣扎。在撰写本文时,约翰霍普金斯大学的COVID-19仪表板显示,全球已有超过7900万例病例,超过170万人死亡。在年底的假日季节,西欧大部分国家都处于或准备实施严格的封锁,包括瑞典,该国在接种疫苗之前采取了一种获得“群体免疫”的方法,这种方法注定会失败,而它确实失败了。在这种情况下,当COVID-19的发源地武汉在病例和死亡人数不断增加的情况下进入封锁状态时,这种行动似乎过度了。截至撰写本文时,世界上人口最多的国家中国的官方死亡人数不到5000人,而美国自12月初以来的新一波死亡人数持续超过3000人。让这些数字先被消化。流行病就像时尚——不断演变,不断循环。当然,不同之处在于每隔几代人就发生一次大流行病的频率。一个世纪前的西班牙流感被认为是最后一次真正的大流行。COVID-19与大流行的历史背景的不同之处在于科学的发展——不仅在诊断和管理方面,而且在大规模旅行和现代交通工具方面,科学是如何使流行病在相对较短的时间内转变为大流行的。在这个社交媒体和网红的时代,我们对新闻的贪婪,更重要的是,不仅来自传统媒体,而且来自任何“有工具的傻瓜”的“观点”,只会放大这种悖论。新闻/事件的净值不再在于内容,而是社交媒体影响力、点击诱饵和不断改进的人工智能算法的函数。我们每次击键或点击所留下的数字足迹决定了我们收到的社交媒体帖子、新闻或观点。因此,对于同一条新闻,存在不止一种“现实”——在COVID-19的背景下,支持和反对口罩、支持和反对疫苗的每个子群体都有自己的现实泡沫。这次大流行给我们的最大教训是,没有政治意愿或行动,科学本身就是一只跛脚鸭。拥有200多年历史的《新英格兰医学杂志》(New England Journal of medicine)在其历史上首次发表了一篇尖锐的社论,谴责否认科学的言论,特别将特朗普政府应对新冠肺炎的方式总结为“他们把危机变成了悲剧”。《柳叶刀》甚至进一步敦促美国选民选择更换领导人。许多其他传统出版物打破常规,表达了它们对否认这种流行病的存在和处理不当的真正关切。前所未有的时代需要前所未有的行动。这些科学之声有自己的职责。无论人们相信还是轻视戴口罩、洗手和保持身体距离以避免感染病毒的建议,我们所知道和生活的世界在这些动荡时期发生了很大的变化。这里争论的焦点不是美国政策/医疗体系的缺点,而是美国政府的行动,美国政府被许多人视为世界上最强大的资源,被较小和较贫穷的国家视为基准。尼泊尔等资源稀缺国家的当权者很容易将矛头指向美国,并宣称“即使是强大的美国也如此不幸,我们只是一个贫穷的国家”。在整个进化过程中,动物依靠它们的视觉/听觉/嗅觉来领先于它们的捕食者并生存下来。在这次大流行期间,我们人类集体需要最稀有的商品,即我们自己的“常识”,更重要的是我们周围的人的“常识”才能生存。在所有的阴霾和厄运中,新的黎明即将来临。高效疫苗正在推出。随着世界不同地区定期报告新的毒性更强的毒株,这些疫苗的效力可能与最初报告的不同。疫苗制造商、各国和世卫组织目前面临的最大挑战是确保所有疫苗的后勤保障,以便疫苗在全球范围内的覆盖范围足以确保群体免疫,并且仍然没有大规模的人口流行。让我们希望常识占上风,世界各国领导人更能接受科学推理和证据,共同努力遏制这一流行病的无情蔓延。不结束就不算结束。
Pandemic in the age of click bait algorithms & our collective conscience
The year 2020 has largely been about COVID-19. The zoonotic virus found in bats causing respiratory disease that originated from Wuhan, China towards the end of 2019, has engulfed the whole world and many regions are still reeling from recurring waves. At the time of this writing, the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard1shows that there has been over 79 million cases worldwide with north of 1.7 million deaths. Much of western Europe is in or bracing for strict lockdown during the end of year holiday season, including Sweden which had adopted an approach of attaining “herd immunity” before vaccines, which was bound to fail, and it did. For the context – when Wuhan, the COVID-19 ground zero, went into lockdown amid growing number of cases and fatalities, the action seemed excessive. The official death toll1in the most populous country in the world, China, as of this writing is less than 5000, whereas daily deaths in the US is topping 3000 consistently in the new wave seen since the start of December. Let those numbers sink in first. A pandemic is like fashion – ever evolving and ever revolving. The difference is, of course, in the frequency that great pandemics occur after every few generations. The Spanish flu from a century ago is regarded as the last true pandemic. How COVID-19 differs from the historical contexts of pandemic is how science has evolved - not just in terms of diagnosis and management, but how mass traveling and modern means of transportation has allowed an epidemic to turn pandemic in a relatively short duration. And our voracity in consuming news, and more importantly “views” not just from traditional media outlets but from any ‘fool with a tool’ in this age of social media and influencers has only amplified this paradox. The net worth of a news/ event is no longer in the content but is a function of social media reach, click baiting, and ever so improving artificial intelligence algorithms. The digital footprints we leave behind with each keystroke or click is determining what social media post, news or opinion pieces we are fed. As such, for the same news, there exists more than one “reality” – in the COVID-19 context, each of the subsets of pro and anti-masks, pro and anti-vaccines have their own reality bubbles.And the biggest lesson that this pandemic has taught us – without political will or action, science alone is a lame duck. The New England Journal of Medicine2with over 200 years of history wrote a scathing editorial, first of its kind in its history, to denounce science denying rhetoric, specifically summing up the Trump administration’s approach to COVID-19 as “they have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.” The Lancet3went even further urging US voters to opt for a change in leadership. Many other traditional publications broke ranks to voice their genuine concerns regarding the denial of existence and mishandling of the pandemic. Unprecedented times called for unprecedented actions. These voices of Science had a job to do. Whether one believes or belittles the recommendations of masks, hand washing, and physical distancing to avoid contracting the virus, the world as we knew and lived in has changed so much during these troubled times. The shortcomings or otherwise of US policies/ healthcare system is not the point of contention here, but the actions of a government regarded by many as the most powerful in the world in terms of resources, and seen as benchmark by smaller and poorer countries. It is easy for those in authority in resource scarce countries like Nepal to point their finger at the US and proclaim “even the mighty USA has been so hapless, we are but a poor country”.Throughout evolution, animals have relied on their ‘senses’ of sight/ sound/ smell to stay ahead of their predators and survive. During this pandemic, us humans, are collectively in need of the rarest commodity of them all, “common sense” within ourselves and more importantly of those around us to survive. Amidst all the gloom and doom, a new dawn is nigh. Highly effective vaccines are being rolled out. With newer more virulent strains being reported from different parts of the world in regular intervals, the efficacy of these vaccines could be different than initially reported. The biggest challenge now for vaccines manufacturers, countries, and the WHO is to ensure the logistics of it all so that the vaccines’ coverage worldwide is enough to ensure herd immunity, and there remains no sizeable population pocket of endemicity. Let’s hope that common sense prevails and world leaders are more receptive of scientific reasonings and evidences and collectively work to quell the unrelenting march of this pandemic. It’s not over till it’s over.