美国和日本量化宽松政策对亚洲汇率影响的实证比较

Y. Han
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考虑了韩元、新元、印度卢比这六种亚洲主要汇率对美元、日元的日收益数据的长记忆波动特性。日收益通常表现出广泛的长记忆波动特性,FIGARCH模型似乎非常适合代表亚洲的日收益。然后,本文利用ARMA - FIGARCH模型和滞后虚拟变量实证比较了美联储和日本央行量化宽松政策对亚洲外汇收益的影响,以解释量化宽松政策对亚洲外汇收益均值和波动过程的影响。实证结果表明,美联储和日本央行的量化宽松政策对韩元和新元兑换收益的平均过程产生了直接的负面影响,除了印度卢比收益表明韩元和新元货币对美元和日元的直接升值。但是,量化宽松政策对亚洲外汇收益波动过程没有直接影响。这些结果可以帮助亚洲各国央行的政策制定者更好地理解此类量化宽松政策所隐含的国际影响和挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Comparisons on the Effects of the US and the Japan Quantitative Easing Policies on the Asian Exchange Rates
This paper considers the long memory volatility property in the daily return data of six major Asian exchange rates of KRW, SGD and INR in terms of USD and JPY. The daily returns generally are found to exhibit the widespread long memory volatility property and the FIGARCH model appears to be quite appropriate to represent the daily Asian returns. Then, this paper empirically compares the effects of the QE policies by the Fed and the BOJ on the Asian exchange returns using the ARMA‐FIGARCH model with the lagged dummy variables to account for the effects of the QE policies on the mean and the volatility process of the Asian returns. The empirical results shows the direct negative impacts of the QE policies by the Fed and the BOJ on the mean process of the KRW and the SGD exchange returns except the INR returns indicating the direct appreciation of the KRW and the SGD currencies against the USD and JPY. But, there are no direct effects of the QE policies on the volatility process of the Asian exchange returns. These results can help policymakers in the Asian central banks to make them better understand the international implications and the challenges implied by such QE policies.
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