考虑KNN-GAN数据增强的净零能耗建筑综合负荷消耗与光伏输出预测

Hou-Wang Iao, Keng-Weng Lao
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摘要

净零能耗建筑(NZEB)是一种新兴的碳减排解决方案。它实现了现场可再生发电和零供需平衡。在NZEB,光伏(PV)占分布式发电的大多数。然而,其随机性和随机性加剧了前瞻性光伏发电量预测的准确性。同时,用户用电量的时空不确定性也会导致负荷预测不正确。此外,新模型NZEB能源系统的数据缺失增加了准确预测的难度。本文提出了一种基于LSTM和变压器的预测模型,并结合k近邻(KNN)数据插值和生成对抗网络(GAN)数据增强,用于NZEB的负荷消耗和光伏输出预测。该框架在负荷预测和光伏发电预测方面的均方根误差(RMSE)分别提高了7.168 kW和4.603 kW。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Integrated Load Consumption and PV Output Forecasting of Net-zero Energy Buildings Considering KNN-GAN Data Augmentation
Net-zero energy building (NZEB) is an emerging active carbon reduction solution. It achieves on-site renewable generations and zero balance between supply and demand. In NZEB, the photovoltaic (PV) accounts for the majority of distributed generations. However, its random and stochastic nature aggravates the accuracy of look-ahead PV output forecasting. Meanwhile, the spatial-temporal uncertainty of customers’ electricity consumption can also result in improper load predictions. Besides, missing data in the late-model NZEB energy system enhances the difficulty of accurate forecasting. In this paper, a LSTM and Transformer-based forecasting models with K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) data interpolation and Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) data augmentation are demonstrated for load consumption and PV output forecasting of NZEB. The proposed framework obtains significant improvements in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 7.168 kW and 4.603 kW, in load and PV power forecasting respectively.
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