全球经济不确定性与非洲汇率管理:一项小组研究

A. Adedokun, Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi, F. O. Adeyemi, Terver Kumeka
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了1990年至2021年全球经济不确定性对非洲汇率管理的影响。采用分位数回归技术,研究结果表明,全球和国内经济的不确定性对非洲的汇率管理产生了重大影响。全球经济不确定性的强度在看跌和过渡市场期间上升,但在看涨市场期间依赖性下降。此外,国内不确定性与非洲汇率管理之间的关系表明,依赖结构在上尾周围改善,但在下尾周围下降。非洲国家应关注全球经济,以应对全球经济不确定性可能带来的负面影响。此外,还应注意其他不确定因素,如政治、社会或其他可能加剧国内经济不确定因素的因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Management in Africa: A Panel Study
Abstract This study investigates the effects of global economic uncertainties on exchange rate management in Africa from 1990 to 2021. Employing the quantile regression technique, findings show that both global and domestic economic uncertainties have significant influence on exchange rate management in Africa. The intensity of global economic uncertainty rises during the bearish and transitional markets, but dependence declines during the bullish markets. Moreover, the relationship between domestic uncertainty and African exchange rate management shows that the structure of dependence improves around the upper tails but declines around the lower tails. African countries should pay attention to global economy in order to combat any impending negative effects of global economic uncertainties. Also, attention should be paid to other uncertainties such as political, social, or other factors that may aggravate domestic economic uncertainties.
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