使农业适应气候变化:洪水会影响种植强度吗?来自印度阿萨姆邦洪水多发地区的证据

Rupon Basumatary
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摘要

最近积累起来的实证研究,特别是自20世纪70年代以来人们对气候变化的认识日益增强,表明人们的农业活动受到灾难性的影响,其中包括自然灾害,洪水是世界各地农业人口面临的最常见的危害。随着目前全球气候变化的速度,它们的不利影响预计将进一步加剧,因此有必要为可持续农业制定适当的适应措施。鉴于这些前提,本研究基于印度阿萨姆邦Dhemaji一个经常遭受洪水袭击的地区,试图检验农户的种植强度是否受到洪水易发性的影响。普通最小二乘估计结果表明,洪水易发地区农户的种植强度在统计学上高于无洪水地区农户。然而,这并不能以任何方式预测易受洪水影响的农民的农业产量或生产力会更高。相反,研究结果隐含地规定了一项专门为洪水易发地区设计的综合农业政策,包括但不限于适当的灌溉基础设施、生产农业实践的大众意识、补贴种子和其他投入,以及收获后的农业基础设施,包括营销设施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Do Floods Affect Cropping Intensity? Evidence from a Flood Prone District in Assam, India
Empirical studies that have recently built up in stock particularly with the growing awareness about the climate change since the 1970s show that people’s agricultural activities are disastrously affected, among others, by natural calamities of which floods are the most common hazards that the farming populations in particular have ever confronted with across the world. Their adverse effects are further expected to escalate with the present pace of global climate change, making it necessary to devise suitable adaptation measures for sustainable agriculture. Given these premises, the present study based in one frequently flood hit district of Dhemaji in the state of Assam, India, makes an attempt to examine whether cropping intensity of the cultivator households is affected by their flood proneness. Ordinary least square estimation result shows that the cultivator households in flood prone areas have statistically higher cropping intensity compared to the flood free households. This, however, does not in any way predict higher agricultural production or productivity by the flood prone farmers. The results, on the contrary, implicitly prescribe for a comprehensive agricultural policy particularly designed for flood prone areas, enveloping strategies but not limited to suitable irrigation infrastructure, mass awareness for productive agricultural practices, subsidised seeds and other inputs, and post harvest agriculture infrastructures including marketing facilities.
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