The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach

Abstract In this study, the impact of the crude oil price on economic growth is investigated in seven middle-income oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), namely Botswana, Kenya, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia. The estimation is based on both linear and non-linear panel autoregressive distributive lag (panel ARDL) models. The real oil price is decomposed into negative oil price shock and positive oil price shock in order to examine the non-linear impact of oil price on economic growth. Using an annual dataset from 1990 to 2018, it was found that in the symmetric model the oil price has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. The short-run estimates, however, show that the oil price has no significant impact on economic growth. The overall results from the asymmetric model also show that there is a non-linear relationship between oil price and economic growth in the studied countries.