石油价格对中等收入石油进口国经济增长的影响:一个非线性面板ARDL方法

Motunrayo O. Akinsola, N. Odhiambo
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摘要

本文以撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的博茨瓦纳、肯尼亚、毛里塔尼亚、毛里求斯、纳米比亚、南非和赞比亚这七个中等收入石油进口国为研究对象,研究了原油价格对经济增长的影响。估计是基于线性和非线性面板自回归分布滞后(面板ARDL)模型。为了检验油价对经济增长的非线性影响,将实际油价分解为负油价冲击和正油价冲击。利用1990 - 2018年的年度数据集,发现在对称模型下,油价对经济增长具有长期的显著正影响。然而,短期估计显示,油价对经济增长没有显著影响。非对称模型的总体结果还表明,在所研究的国家中,油价与经济增长之间存在非线性关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach
Abstract In this study, the impact of the crude oil price on economic growth is investigated in seven middle-income oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), namely Botswana, Kenya, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia. The estimation is based on both linear and non-linear panel autoregressive distributive lag (panel ARDL) models. The real oil price is decomposed into negative oil price shock and positive oil price shock in order to examine the non-linear impact of oil price on economic growth. Using an annual dataset from 1990 to 2018, it was found that in the symmetric model the oil price has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. The short-run estimates, however, show that the oil price has no significant impact on economic growth. The overall results from the asymmetric model also show that there is a non-linear relationship between oil price and economic growth in the studied countries.
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