基于注意力- lstm神经网络的水文时间序列预测模型

Yiran Li, Juan Yang
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引用次数: 6

摘要

利用神经网络构建预测模型一直是混沌时间序列预测研究的热点。自2006年Hinton提出深度学习的概念以来,神经网络的发展越来越快,各种各样的神经网络层出不穷。其中,RNN神经网络和LSTM神经网络以其处理良好的时间序列特性被应用到我们日常生活的各个领域。因此,我们利用LSTM神经网络构建模型,并利用Attention机制对模型进行优化,建立了Attention-LSTM水文时间序列预测模型。实验结果表明,与普通LSTM模型和传统BP模型相比,Attention-LSTM模型在预测值的均方误差和绝对误差方面都有较好的改善。由于注意机制的引入,可以在一定程度上突出关键因素。的影响。实验结果表明,Attention-LSTM模型具有预测精度高、滞后误差小的优点,有利于深度学习算法在水文时间序列预测中的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Hydrological Time Series Prediction Model Based on Attention-LSTM Neural Network
Constructing predictive models with neural networks has always been the focus of research in chaotic time series prediction. Since Hinton proposed the concept of deep learning in 2006, the development of neural networks is getting faster and faster, and a variety of neural networks appear. Among them, RNN neural network and LSTM neural network are applied to all fields of our daily life for the property of well-processed time series. Therefore, we use LSTM neural network to construct our model, and optimize the model by Attention mechanism to establish an Attention-LSTM hydrological time series prediction model. The experimental results show that the Attention-LSTM model has better improvement in the mean square error and absolute error of the predicted values than the common LSTM model and the traditional BP model. And due to the introduction of the Attention mechanism, it can highlight the key factors to some extent. influences.The experimental results show that the Attention-LSTM model has the advantages of high prediction accuracy and small lag error, which is helpful for the application of deep learning algorithm in hydrological time series prediction.
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