Erlang C模型适合真实的呼叫中心吗?

T. R. Robbins, D. Medeiros, Terry P. Harrison
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引用次数: 36

摘要

我们考虑Erlang C模型,这是一种通常用于分析呼叫中心性能的排队模型。Erlang C是一个简单的模型,它忽略了调用者的放弃,是从业者和研究人员最常用的模型。我们将Erlang C模型的理论性能预测与呼叫中心模拟模型进行了比较,其中许多Erlang C假设都是宽松的。我们的研究结果表明,Erlang C模型在预测系统性能时存在显著误差,但这些误差是严重偏差的,并且最有可能是悲观的,即系统往往比预测的表现更好。该模型提供悲观(即保守)估计的倾向可能有助于解释其持续受欢迎的原因。预测误差与放弃率密切相关,因此该模型在座席数量众多、利用率相对较低的呼叫中心中效果最好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does the Erlang C model fit in real call centers?
We consider the Erlang C model, a queuing model commonly used to analyze call center performance. Erlang C is a simple model that ignores caller abandonment and is the model most commonly used by practitioners and researchers. We compare the theoretical performance predictions of the Erlang C model to a call center simulation model where many of the Erlang C assumptions are relaxed. Our findings indicate that the Erlang C model is subject to significant error in predicting system performance, but that these errors are heavily biased and most likely to be pessimistic, i.e. the system tends to perform better than predicted. It may be the case that the model's tendency to provide pessimistic (i.e. conservative) estimates helps explain its continued popularity. Prediction error is strongly correlated with the abandonment rate so the model works best in call centers with large numbers of agents and relatively low utilization rates.
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