年金化与私有化有何不同

B. Jackson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1998年,Geanakoplos, Mitchell和Zeldes撰写了两篇对社会保障改革提案(即私有化)最有力的批评。作者指出,个人在选择自己的投资时,会尽量避免选择损失本金的股票的风险,因此最终会获得中期政府债券的无风险利率。这反过来又需要将FICA的全部费率存入他们的账户,以达到预期的福利水平,这反过来又需要新的税收来支付过渡债务。由于这笔债务将在国会已经无法偿还的债务之上增加一层新的债务,它的利率可能会高于无风险的利率。新税加上过渡债务的市场利率,完全抵消了投资回报率略高所带来的收益。因此,私有化并不比现行制度下的情况好。本文将一种新的私有化方案与旧的私有化方案进行了比较,并说明了养老金化是如何克服上述批评中暴露的问题的。作者在另一篇专门研究这一主题的论文中,展示了年金化(见引文)如何将福利提高到100%的工资替代,偿还国家债务,覆盖没有保险的人,减缓医疗成本的增长速度,并迅速带领我们走出整个经济危机。这些说法对一些人来说听起来好得令人难以置信。本文通过展示年金化与私有化的不同之处,以及为什么它能达到作者所声称的效果,为认真思考年金化打开了大门。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Annuitizing Differs from Privatization
Two of the most powerful critiques of the Social Security reform proposals known as Privatization were written in 1998 by Geanakoplos, Mitchell and Zeldes (see citations). The authors showed that individuals picking their own investments would seek to avoid the risk of picking a loser stock that wiped out their principal, so would wind up earning the riskless interest rate of intermediate term government bonds. This in turn required putting the full FICA rate into their account to achieve the expected benefit level, which in turn required new taxes to pay the transition debt. Since this debt would add a new layer on top of what Congress already is not repaying, it would likely carry an interest rate higher than riskless. The combination of new taxes plus market rate of interest on the transition debt completely negates the gain from earning a slightly higher return on investments. Thus, we're no better off with Privatization than under the current system.This paper compares a new reform proposal - called Annuitizing - to the old Privatization proposals, and shows how Annuitizing overcomes the problems exposed in the critiques above. The author, in another paper devoted to that subject, shows how Annuitizing (see citation) can boost benefits to 100% wage replacement, pay off the national debt, cover the uninsured and slow down the growth rate of healthcare costs as well as quickly lead us out of the whole economic crisis.These claims strike some people as sounding too good to be true. This paper opens the door to serious consideration of Annuitizing by showing exactly how it differs from Privatization and therefore why it achieves what the author claims for it.
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