中等收入陷阱视角下的中东欧国家危机后增长与发展放缓

Krisztina Sőreg
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引用次数: 1

摘要

似乎没有令人信服的理由认为,2007-08年的金融危机在很大程度上加剧了欧盟以中心边缘为基础的发展问题。本文考察了危机后中东欧国家的增长和发展放缓,并从更广泛的角度考察了该地区转型后的增长路径。我们的一个主要假设是,加入欧盟的过程——通过刺激对该地区的外国投资——对危机前的显著发展和危机后中东欧国家的持续增长放缓做出了重大贡献。在最近的危机期间,上述民族国家一直在处理若干社会经济困难,向国际货币基金组织提出了相当大的融资需求。可以认为,后苏联国家长期存在的结构问题,加上最近的长期衰退,在审查的区域造成了与中等收入陷阱有关的情况。在本文中,我们简要回顾了中东欧国家从中央计划经济国家向市场经济国家的发展,并对2008年后的全球经济增长进行了展望。我们还分析了该地区的一些中等收入陷阱事件,重点是匈牙利转型后发展道路的特殊情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post-Crisis Growth and Development Slowdown of Central Eastern European Countries from the Middle-Income Trap Perspective
There seems to be no compelling reason to argue that the financial crisis of 2007-08 has significantly contributed to the deepening of centre-periphery based development issues in the European Union. In current paper the post-crisis increase and development slowdown of Central Eastern European Countries - and from a broader perspective - the post-transition growth path of the region is examined. One of our main hypotheses is that the process of accession to the EU - by stimulating foreign investment to the region - has strongly contributed to the signifcant pre-crisis development and to the post-crisis persistent growth slowdown in Central Eastern European Countries. During the recent crisis, the above-mentioned nation states have been dealing with several socio-economic difficulties raising considerable financing needs towards the IMF. It can be assumed that the long-standing structural problems of the post-Soviet countries combined with the latest protracted recession have created a middle-income trap related situation in the examined region. In this paper, we are providing a brief review of the CEECs' development from central planning towards market economies state followed by a global economic outlook of the post-2008 growth. We are also analysing some middle-income trap episodes of the region focusing on the special case of Hungary's post-transition development path.
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