对COVID-19的行为反应建模

Ben R. Craig, Thomas M. Phelan, Jan-Peter Siedlarek
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引用次数: 0

摘要

已经开发了许多模型来预测COVID-19病毒的传播。我们提出了一种增强的,允许个人改变他们的行为,以应对病毒。我们将展示向模型中添加此特性如何既改变结果预测,又使我们了解适当的政策响应。我们发现,当让个人自行其是时,面对风险,他们确实会抑制自己的社会活动,但不像政府计划者那样。计划者充分内化了社会中所有个人行为对他人的影响,而个人却没有。此外,我们的模拟表明,在大流行的中后期,政府干预可能特别重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling Behavioral Responses to COVID-19
Many models have been developed to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 virus. We present one that is enhanced to allow individuals to alter their behavior in response to the virus. We show how adding this feature to the model both changes the resulting forecast and informs our understanding of the appropriate policy response. We find that when left to their own devices, individuals do curb their social activity in the face of risk, but not as much as a government planner would. The planner fully internalizes the effect of all individuals’ actions on others in society, while individuals do not. Further, our simulations suggest that government intervention may be particularly important in the middle and later stages of a pandemic.
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