温室气体和周期性增长

L. Taylor, D. Foley
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文描述了一个包含人均资本、大气二氧化碳浓度、劳动和能源生产率动态的增长模型。与大多数气候变化模型不同,在“中期”,产出和就业是由有效需求决定的。在几个世纪的“长期运行”中,该模型趋近于二氧化碳净排放量为零的稳定状态。探讨了沉闷和非沉闷平稳状态的性质,后者要求在减缓排放方面进行相对较高水平的投资。数值模拟显示,在“一切照旧”的情况下,如果没有这种投资,产出动态具有很强的周期性。先是80年左右的强劲产出增长,然后是气候危机和产出崩溃。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Greenhouse gas and cyclical growth
A growth model incorporating dynamics of capital per capita, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and labor and energy productivity is described. In the “medium run” output and employment are determined by effective demand in contrast to most models of climate change. In a “long run” of several centuries the model converges to a stationary state with zero net emissions of CO 2 . Properties of dismal and non-dismal stationary states are explored, with a latter requiring a relatively high level of investment in mitigation of emissions. Without such investment under “business as usual” output dynamics are strongly cyclical in numerical simulations. There is strong output growth for about eight decades, then a climate crisis, and output crash.
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