Evaluating Peer-to-Peer Electricity Markets across the U.S. Using an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

The diffusion of distributed energy resources can overcome some challenges associated with the historical centralized model of electric power distribution. Decentralized generation by residential solar photovoltaic cells creates the potential for peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading, where households can act as consumers and prosumers to buy and sell renewable electricity. P2P energy markets are emerging at locations across the globe, and market performance is affected by various social, economic, and environmental factors. This research applies an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate electricity trades between heterogeneous households in a decentralized market. The P2P system is tested for 15 locations in the United States that vary in climate parameters and local economic factors. The results from these simulations are compared to assess how differences in climate, demand pattern, retail rate, and irradiance affect market performance. Simulations demonstrate that market outcomes rely on the ratio of prosumers to consumers, environmental factors, and geographic conditions. Battery energy storage overcomes limitations associated with faulty forecasting and improves the flexibility of household-generated solar resources to increase the proportion of production that is sold in the P2P market. The application of the agent-based modeling framework demonstrates how P2P markets can be expected to perform for various locations and can be applied to assess alternative locations for market performance.