1854

Gaca Stanislaw, Zielinkiewicz Arkadiusz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

先前的研究直接表明,在自然采光条件恶化期间,事故风险增加。这一增长是由许多因素决定的,包括道路解决方案,并因事故类型而异。确定与照明条件有关的一系列决定事故风险的因素需要各种互补的研究方法。本文描述了其中的一些方法,包括:使用所谓的“比值比”估计事故相对风险的方法,估计事故率的回归模型和贝叶斯模型。通过选取Po国公路上记录的事故数据分析结果,说明了它们在Po国公路上的应用。除其他外,这些分析用于确定各种方法的主要优点及其局限性,特别强调相对较新的道路事故分析方法,即贝叶斯图形模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
1854
Previous research directly indicates an increased a ccident risk during deterioration of natural lighti ng conditions. This increase is determined by a number of factors, including road solutions and varies de pending on the type of accidents. Identification of a set o f factors determining the accident risk in connecti on with lighting conditions requires various, complementary research methods. Some of these methods are descri bed in the paper and include: a method of estimating the r elative risk of accident using the so-called "odds ratios", regression models estimating accident rates and Bay esi n graphical models. Description of their applic at on is illustrated by a selection of analysis results base d on accident data recorded on national roads in Po land. These analyses were used, among others, to determin e the main advantages of various methods as well as their limitations, with a particular emphasis on the rela tively new method of analysis of road accidents, i. e., Bayesian graphical models.
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