Mathematical model for forecasting hydrocarbon production based on time dependences of development periods of oil and natural gas fields

An optimization model for forecasting hydrocarbon production in uncertain information conditions regarding the prospects for the development of natural gas and oil resources and reserves is proposed. The model is based on the presentation of options for the development of active fields with approximate dependences of the volume of potential annual production on the implemented measures and technologies for increasing the efficiency of gas extraction, as well as statistical information on the distribution of new fields by the reserves and depths volume of occurrence with the corresponding costs for the field’s development. In order to take into account the characteristic patterns of exploitation of natural gas and oil fields in the objective of forecasting the development of the relevant sectors of the country's economy, approximate time dependences of the production volume of a hydrocarbon field during a limited period of its development are proposed. The method of using sets of binary variables to represent the non-smooth and non-linear dependences of hydrocarbon resource extraction volumes on time during the periods of field development is presented. The optimization approach basis to the problem of forecasting the development of the oil and gas production industry regarding the substantiation of the expedient terms of putting new natural gas and oil fields into operation, taking into account the possibilities of intensifying the production of existing fields, is proposed. The optimization model for forecasting hydrocarbon production can be considered as a methodical tool for developing programs for the development of oil and gas production in the country in the context of solving applied planning problems. The calculations result of forecast volumes of natural gas production, obtained using the developed software and information support of the model, are presented. The implemented algorithms of non-linear optimization made it possible to form a volume forecast of natural gas production in Ukraine for the period until 2040, which takes into account the types of natural gas deposits available in the country and the possibility assessment of their development over time. Keywords: gas industry, forecasting, mining, technology, production forecasting model