官厅水库水资源冲突现状分析

Zhao Wei, Huang Sheng
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引用次数: 2

摘要

冲突在现实世界中广泛存在,越来越受到决策者和学者的广泛关注。从战略分析的角度来看,自20世纪80年代开始应用的F-H冲突分析是解决冲突的便利工具。本文以华北半干旱区水资源冲突的典型案例——官厅水库为例,探讨了水资源质与量冲突问题,并提出了解决质与量冲突的现状模型。建模表明,根据冲突规则和参与人对私人利益的主观判断,可达状态和均衡都可以随初始状态和可能的移动路径而变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Status Quo Analysis of Water Resources Conflict of Guanting Reservoir
Conflicts widely exist in our real world, which have drawn more and more attention of decision-makers and scholars in a large scale. F-H conflict analysis, which has been applied since 1980s, is a convenient tool for conflict resolution from the viewpoint of strategy analysis. In this paper, a typical case of water resources conflict in the semiarid region in North China, Guanting Reservoir water resources conflict with quality and quantity was discussed, and a status quo model was proposed to solve that conflict. The modeling shows that both reachable states and equilibria could be variable with different initial states and possible moving paths, according to conflict rules and players' subjective judgment for private benefits.
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