COVID-19大流行传播性模拟研究

Hyunjo Kim
{"title":"COVID-19大流行传播性模拟研究","authors":"Hyunjo Kim","doi":"10.31031/cjmi.2020.03.000574","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"be critical for the response to the COVID-19 outbreak. In order to assess their threat to humans, we explored to infer the potential hosts of coronaviruses using a dual-model approach with discriminant model achieved high accuracies in leave-one-out cross-validation of training data consisting of standard representative coronaviruses [34-37]. Predictions on chosen additional coronaviruses precisely conformed to conclusions or speculations by other researchers. The novel coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading with a rising death toll and transmission rate reported in high income countries rather than in low income countries. The overburdened healthcare systems and poor disease surveillance systems in resource-limited settings may struggle to cope with this COVID-19 outbreak and this calls for a tailored strategic response for these settings. Here, we recommend blockchain Abstract COVID-19 was identified as the causative virus of pneumonia based on unknown etiology. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily numbers of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of quarantine and control measures. Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected reach to pandemics. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus.","PeriodicalId":406162,"journal":{"name":"Cohesive Journal of Microbiology & Infectious Disease","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"COVID-19 Pandemic Simulation Studies on the Transmissibility\",\"authors\":\"Hyunjo Kim\",\"doi\":\"10.31031/cjmi.2020.03.000574\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"be critical for the response to the COVID-19 outbreak. In order to assess their threat to humans, we explored to infer the potential hosts of coronaviruses using a dual-model approach with discriminant model achieved high accuracies in leave-one-out cross-validation of training data consisting of standard representative coronaviruses [34-37]. Predictions on chosen additional coronaviruses precisely conformed to conclusions or speculations by other researchers. The novel coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading with a rising death toll and transmission rate reported in high income countries rather than in low income countries. The overburdened healthcare systems and poor disease surveillance systems in resource-limited settings may struggle to cope with this COVID-19 outbreak and this calls for a tailored strategic response for these settings. Here, we recommend blockchain Abstract COVID-19 was identified as the causative virus of pneumonia based on unknown etiology. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily numbers of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of quarantine and control measures. Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected reach to pandemics. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus.\",\"PeriodicalId\":406162,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cohesive Journal of Microbiology & Infectious Disease\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-04-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cohesive Journal of Microbiology & Infectious Disease\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.31031/cjmi.2020.03.000574\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cohesive Journal of Microbiology & Infectious Disease","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31031/cjmi.2020.03.000574","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

对应对COVID-19疫情至关重要。为了评估冠状病毒对人类的威胁,我们探索使用双模型方法推断冠状病毒的潜在宿主,其中判别模型在由标准代表性冠状病毒组成的训练数据的留一交叉验证中获得了很高的准确性[34-37]。对选定的其他冠状病毒的预测与其他研究人员的结论或推测完全一致。新型冠状病毒病19 (COVID-19)正在迅速蔓延,高收入国家报告的死亡人数和传播率上升,而不是低收入国家。在资源有限的环境中,负担过重的卫生保健系统和薄弱的疾病监测系统可能难以应对COVID-19疫情,这需要针对这些环境制定量身定制的战略应对措施。摘要基于未知病因,COVID-19被确定为肺炎的致病病毒。新冠肺炎具有潜伏期高传染性、实际动态与每日确诊病例数之间存在时滞、检疫控制措施干预效果显著等多种不同于其他传染病的特点。全球有多少人感染和疑似感染了流行病,这引起了公共卫生方面的关注。因此,迫切需要建立一个数学模型来估计病毒的传播力和传播动态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
COVID-19 Pandemic Simulation Studies on the Transmissibility
be critical for the response to the COVID-19 outbreak. In order to assess their threat to humans, we explored to infer the potential hosts of coronaviruses using a dual-model approach with discriminant model achieved high accuracies in leave-one-out cross-validation of training data consisting of standard representative coronaviruses [34-37]. Predictions on chosen additional coronaviruses precisely conformed to conclusions or speculations by other researchers. The novel coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading with a rising death toll and transmission rate reported in high income countries rather than in low income countries. The overburdened healthcare systems and poor disease surveillance systems in resource-limited settings may struggle to cope with this COVID-19 outbreak and this calls for a tailored strategic response for these settings. Here, we recommend blockchain Abstract COVID-19 was identified as the causative virus of pneumonia based on unknown etiology. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily numbers of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of quarantine and control measures. Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected reach to pandemics. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信