Modeling daily dynamics of speed and fuel consumption for urban delivery means

Road transport is one of the most important elements of the functioning of a modern city. Maneuverability, mobility, speed of delivery of goods and other criteria have provided him with a special and leading place in urban logistics. However, along with the benefits of a developed transport network for society, its progress is accompanied by negative consequences for the environment and the population of the city. High rates of growth in the number of cars, especially in large cities, cause an increase in emissions of harmful products into the atmosphere, which, accordingly, negatively affects the health of the population. Consequently, the problem of environmental pollution in large cities from harmful emissions from vehicles requires an urgent solution. The increase in emissions of harmful substances is affected by an increase in the consumption of fuel materials due to a decrease in speed because of an increase in traffic density in the city. The frequency, duration, prevalence of congestion is increasing along with the urbanization of the population and the increase in the number of cars in cities. The dense development of the central historical districts of the city exacerbates the problem of unhindered passage of individual, public and freight vehicles. In addition, a decrease in the speed of city traffic affects the speed of delivery of goods, correspondence, etc., which negatively affects the speed of business processes, and ultimately worsens the level of logistics services for customers. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current situation in terms of the dynamics of the average speed of the city's traffic flow by hours of the day and to obtain a mathematical model of the dependence of the speed of movement on the consumption of fuel materials for various environmentally friendly means of urban delivery (car, motorcycle, bicycle and pedestrian courier). The research was carried out in two stages. At the first, the study of the dependence of the average speed of movement in the city on the time of day (for all means of city delivery) was carried out. At the second stage, the study of the dependence of the average consumption of fuel materials in the city (which, accordingly, is a function of the speed of movement) on the time of day for motorized urban delivery vehicles was done. In the course of the study, at each stage, an equation of the trend lines was obtained with a sufficient approximation accuracy. In conclusion, the study proposes an algorithm for determining the average speed and average amount of fuel consumption when delivering small consignments in an urban environment using four urban logistics means - a car, a motorcycle, a bicycle, and a pedestrian courier (with the possibility of using public transport). The proposed algorithm can be applied in any delivery conditions in the city.