寻找风险管理的新方法和方法

S. Dvoryatkina, A. Lopukhin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究实现了将风险管理理论应用于教育系统的复杂而大规模的问题。对国内和国际研究的全面分析表明,缺乏对教育领域的风险和冒险问题的理论框架和一般方法看法。在有效管理教育活动的同时,根据现代风险管理范式,综合教学、经济、数学和计算机科学方面的成就,可以确保个人在劳动力市场上的竞争力及其积极参与社会生活的潜力的发展。分形方法是一种新的研究方法,它定义了对专业能力不形成、复杂的教育和主体活动的认知结构的风险进行定量和定性分析和评估的思想。考虑到学科和认知差异,评估知识和能力形成及其风险景观的分形模型将确保教育过程中知识存储结构的有效性,最大限度地减少构建空间和工程知识库的时间,并深度解决教育风险预测问题。基于机器学习算法和因子分析的风险建模新方法,构建神经积分器的方法,考虑或不考虑概率分布的定量方法,将确保风险评估和预测的准确性和速度,将允许人们识别风险活动的新模式,并进一步发展风险理论。提出的有效战略和创新工具将解决最大限度地减少意外混乱的问题,以及包括COVID-19疫情在内的危险局势的一连串负面后果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SEARCH FOR NEW METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES AND METHODS IN RISK MANAGEMENT
The study actualized the complex and large-scale problem of adapting the theory of risk man-agement for the education system. A comprehensive analysis of domestic and international stud-ies revealed the lack of a theoretical framework, a general methodological vision of the problem of riskiness and risk-taking in the educational sphere. While effective management of education-al activities, ensuring the development of the competitiveness of the individual in the labor mar-ket and its potential for active participation in the life of society is possible on the basis of the modern paradigm of risk management, integrating achievements in pedagogical, economic, mathematical and computer sciences. A new methodology in the study is the fractal approach, which defines the idea of quantitative and qualitative analysis and assessment of the risk of non-formation of professional competencies, complex educational and cognitive constructs of subject activity. The fractal model of assessing the formation of knowledge and competencies, its risk landscape, taking into account the subject and cognitive divergence, will ensure the effective-ness of the structure of knowledge storage in the educational process, minimizing the time for building space and engineering knowledge bases, and the depth of solving the problem of pre-dicting educational risks. New methods of risk modeling based on machine learning algorithms and factor analysis, methods for constructing neural integrators, quantitative methods with and without taking into account the probability distribution will ensure the accuracy and speed of risk assessment and prediction, will allow one to identify new patterns of risk activity and further ways to develop the theory of risk. The presented effective strategies and innovative tools will solve the problem of minimizing unplanned chaos, the cascade of negative consequences of risky situations, including the COVID-19 epidemic.
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