用非均匀快速傅里叶变换探索不规则时间序列

Jung Heon Song, M. L. Prado, H. Simon, Kesheng Wu
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引用次数: 6

摘要

大多数流行的时间序列分析工具都要求以统一的时间间隔获取数据。然而,现实世界的时间序列,比如那些来自金融市场的时间序列,通常是以不规则的时间间隔进行的。将不规则时间序列重新采样或放入规则时间序列是一种常见的做法,但这种做法有很大的局限性。例如,如果要将股票的交易活动重新采样为小时序列,那么时间序列只能持续整个交易日,因为通常晚上没有交易。在这项工作中,我们通过一种称为非均匀快速傅里叶变换(NUFFT)的高性能计算算法探索不规则时间序列的动力学。为了说明其有效性,我们将NUFFT应用于过去七年的天然气期货合约交易记录。测试表明,NUFFT结果准确地捕获了交易记录中众所周知的结构特征,例如周周期和日周期。同时,结果也揭示了未被探索的特征,比如多重幂律的存在。特别地,我们观察到近年来在傅里叶谱中出现的幂律。我们还以每分钟一次的精确频率检测到强傅立叶分量,这意味着可能由时钟触发重大的自动交易活动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring Irregular Time Series through Non-Uniform Fast Fourier Transform
Most popular analysis tools on time series require the data to be taken at uniform time intervals. However, the realworld time series, such as those fromnancial markets, are typically taken at irregular time intervals. It is a common practice to resample or bin the irregular time series into a regular one, but there are significant limitations on this practice. For example, if one is to resample the trading activities of a stock into hourly series, then the time series can only last through the trading day, because there usually is no trading in the night. In this work, we explore the dynamics of irregular time series through a high-performance computing algorithm known as Non-Uniform Fast Fourier Transform (NUFFT).To illustrate its effectiveness, we apply NUFFT on the trading records of natural gas futures contracts for the last seven years. Tests show that NUFFT results accurately capture well-known structural features in the trading records, such as weekly and daily cycles. At the same time the results also reveal unexplored features, such as the presence of multiple power laws. In particular, we observe an emerging power law in the Fourier spectra in recent years. We also detect a strong Fourier component at the precise frequency once per minute, which implies significant automated trading activities might be triggered by clock.
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