Chasing the Black Swan

The term “Black Swan” is a familiar concept in the context of high-consequence operations. There is the continual concern that there may be an “as yet” undiscovered flaw or lack of understanding in the design of a product, process or facility that could lead to a catastrophic event. The potential incompleteness in understanding any design concept, implementation and associated assessment is of concern. Given that “absolute confidence” may never be possible, the question becomes how best to continue to search for such possible flaws with a view to subsequent removal or mitigation. At first sight, this appears to be a process without end, but the level of commitment must be balanced against any detrimental consequence that could ensue should a Black Swan exist. But when is “enough is enough?” In this paper, this subject is covered in the context of nuclear warheads, where the Black Swan could indeed be catastrophic should it exist. The paper is framed around what can be learned from the general literature associated with “Black Swan” thinking.