调和移民对美国劳动力市场影响的国家和地区估计:本土男性监禁趋势的混淆效应

S. Raphael, L. Ronconi
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引用次数: 30

摘要

在本文中,我们调和了地区和国家层面对移民对本地收入影响的估计之间的差异。这种协调源于这样一个事实,即现有的国家一级研究未能充分控制与移民冲击的技能分布密切相关的工资结构的其他决定因素的变化。我们特别关注监禁趋势的影响。在过去的三十年里,越来越多的低技能本地工人在监狱服刑,这种发展可以说损害了他们的就业前景。我们表明,一个特定的教育经历群体中移民的比例与制度化人口群体中本土出生工人的比例密切相关。保持恒定的监禁趋势大大降低了本地劳动力市场结果与他们的技能单元中移民比例之间的减少形式关系的估计幅度。Borjas、Grogger和Hansen(2006)对这些发现提出了另一种解释,即移民导致的工资下降迫使更多的男性从事犯罪活动,这反过来又增加了监狱率。作者提出了一个模型,根据该模型,移民对监禁的减少形式效应反映了(1)移民对工资的影响和(2)犯罪部门劳动力需求弹性的产物。后一种弹性衡量的是,随着合法工作机会(以工资衡量)的质量下降,当地犯罪市场能够吸收更多罪犯的程度。虽然作者提出的国家层面的相关性与这种解释一致,但我们表明,州一级的结果并非如此。尽管在州级面板回归中,移民渗透对工资有相当大的、统计上显着的负减量效应,但州级移民冲击与州级监禁率之间没有统计上显着的关系——即,尽管对州级工资有可识别的剂量,但没有监禁率反应。使用Borjas、Grogger和Hansen(2006)提出的原始州一级估计,以及我们对这些回归的复制和简单替代说明,对犯罪部门需求弹性的估计基本上为零。因此,我们得出结论,移民对通过劳动力市场竞争运作的本地人的犯罪活动没有影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reconciling National and Regional Estimates of the Effect of Immigration on U.S. Labor Markets: The Confounding Effects of Native Male Incarceration Trends
In this paper, we reconcile the disparity between regional and national level estimates of the effect of immigration on native earnings. The reconciliation derives from the fact that existing national level studies fail to adequately control for changes in other determinants of the wage structure that correspond closely with the skill distribution of immigrant shocks. We focus specifically on the effect of accounting for incarceration trends. Over the past thirty years, an increasing proportion of low skilled native workers have served time in prison, a development that has arguably harmed their employment prospects. We show that the fraction of a given education-experience group that is immigrant is strongly correlated with the fraction of native born workers in the demographic group that is institutionalized. Holding constant incarceration trends considerably diminishes the estimated magnitude of the reduced-form relationship between native labor market outcomes and the fraction in their skill cell that is immigrant.An alternative interpretation of these findings offered by Borjas, Grogger, and Hansen (2006) is that immigration-induced wage declines have pushed more men into criminal activity which, in turn, has increased the incarceration rate. The authors present a model whereby the reduced form effect of immigration on incarceration reflects the product of (1) the effect of immigration on wages and (2) the elasticity of labor demand in the crime sector. The latter elasticity gauges the extent to which the local crime market is able to absorb additional offenders as the quality of legitimate work opportunities (as measured by wages) diminishes. While national level correlations presented by the authors are consistent with this interpretation, we show that the state level results are not. Despite a sizable and statistically significant negative reduced-form effect of immigrant penetration on wages in state-level panel regressions, there is no statistically significant relationship between state-level immigrant shocks and state-level incarceration rates - i.e., despite an identifiable dose to state-level wages, there is no incarceration response. Estimates of the elasticity of demand in the criminal sector using both the original state-level estimates presented in Borjas, Grogger, and Hansen (2006) as well as our replication and simple alternative specification of these regressions are essentially zero. Thus, we conclude that immigration has had no impact on criminal activity among natives operating through labor market competition.
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