基于多元线性回归和灰色预测模型的中美上市公司估值分析

Jinke Li, Qiang Zhang, ZhiJun Zhang, Fan Wang, Xijie Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着中国经济全球化的发展,股票市场逐渐显示出其在中国市场经济发展中的重要地位。首先,本文选取平均市销比作为估值水平,利用评价模型计算2018年中国a股市场和美国纳斯达克市场的估值水平,并计算这两个市场的估值溢价或折价水平。其次,建立多元线性回归模型,定量分析中国a股与美国纳斯达克市场的估值指标与基本面指标、流动性指标之间的关系。然后,建立灰色预测模型,对2019年中国a股市场和美国纳斯达克市场的基本面指标和流动性指标进行预测分析。根据预测结果,计算出这两个市场2019年的估值指标。结果发现,我国首批科创板公司估值水平波动幅度在5倍左右,小于美国,说明中国股市潜力更大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Valuation Analysis of Chinese and American Listed Companies Based on Multiple Linear Regression and Grey Forecasting Model
With the development of China's economic globalization, the stock market has gradually demonstrated its important position in the development of China's market economy. First, this paper selects the average market-to-sales ratio as the valuation level, uses an evaluation model to calculate the valuation level of the Chinese A-share market and the US NASDAQ market in 2018, and calculates the valuation premium or discount level of these two markets. Secondly, we establish a multiple linear regression model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the valuation indicators and fundamental indicators and liquidity indicators of China A-shares and the US NASDAQ market. Then, a grey forecast model is established to predict and analyze the fundamental indicators and liquidity indicators of the Chinese A-share market and the US NASDAQ market in 2019. According to the forecast results, the valuation indicators of these two markets in 2019 are calculated. The results found that the valuation level of my country's first batch of sci-tech innovation board companies fluctuates around 5 times, which is smaller than that of the United States, indicating that China's stock market has greater potential.
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