委内瑞拉公共财政的纪律、稳定和可持续性

M. A. Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Luis Zambrano Sequín
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引用次数: 0

摘要

委内瑞拉财政规则制度提案的目标是双重的:实现公共财政的稳定和可持续性,并为旨在恢复该国基本宏观经济平衡和持续的中期和长期增长道路的政策提供基础。在介绍这种制度之前,我们概述了财政规则的现状,并且-委内瑞拉是一个石油国家-重点关注其在自然资源经济中的主要方面和限制。为了评估拟议的财政规则体系,我们针对委内瑞拉的情况校准和模拟了一个量身定制的模型,并在可能的短期和中期宏观经济情景背景下进行了估计。如果提出的财政规则是在财政整顿和恢复基本宏观经济平衡的过程之后实施的,那么这项工作的结果使我们能够推断其可行性和便利性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Discipline, Stability, and Sustainability in Venezuelan Public Finance
The objective of the proposal of a system of fiscal rules for Venezuela is twofold: to achieve the stabilization and sustainability of public finances, and to provide foundations for policies aimed at restoring the country’s basic macroeconomic balances and a sustained medium and long-term growth path. Before presenting such system, we offer an overview of the current state of the subject on fiscal rules and – being Venezuela an oil country – focus on their main aspects and restrictions in natural resource economies. To evaluate the proposed system of fiscal rules, we calibrate and simulate a tailored model for the Venezuelan case and perform the estimations in the context of likely short and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. The results of the exercise allow us to infer its feasibility and convenience if the fiscal rules proposed are implemented after a process of fiscal consolidation and restoration of basic macroeconomic equilibria.
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