煤电联动的价格传导效应:一个局部传导投入产出分析

2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization Pub Date : 2014-07-04 DOI:10.1109/CSO.2014.74

Chenlong Mu, Shu Liu, Chen Cheng

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引用次数: 1

摘要

煤电联动改革对中国整体价格水平产生了重大影响。为了分析价格传导效应，本文首先引入CTC(成本传导能力)投入产出价格模型，利用2005年、2007年和2010年中国投入产出表和2005 - 2011年主要产品价格指数对39个行业的成本传导能力进行估算。然后设计了2个阶段的模拟情景，比较煤电价格联动与不联动时的效果。结果表明，煤炭价格冲击对能源资源行业及其油气开采等下游产业的影响大于其他行业，GDP平减指数的上升幅度大于PPI的上升幅度。

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Price Transmission Effect of Coal and Electricity Linkage: A Partial Transmission Input-Output Analysis

Coal and electricity linkage reform has a significant impact on the whole price level in China. In order to analysis the price transmission effect, this paper firstly introduces a CTC (cost transmission capacity) input-output price model, use 2005, 2007 and 2010 China input-output tables and the main product price index from 2005 to 2011 to estimates the cost transmission capacity of 39 industries. And then designs 2 stages of simulation scenarios to compare the effect when the price of coal and electricity is linkage or not. The results show that the coal price shocks exert greater impact to energy resources sectors and their downstream industries such as oil and gas extraction than other industries, and the rising of GDP deflator is more significant than that of PPI.

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2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization

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