Foreign Currency as a Barrier to Trade: Evidence from Brazil

I study the role of foreign currency risk in affecting export behavior. The dominant role of the United States Dollar in the international payments system exposes many emerging market firms to exchange rate risk in international trade due to unexpected movements in prices paid in local currency. In 2008, Brazil and Argentina agreed to a “Local Currency Payments” (SML) system, which allowed exporters and importers to operate in their own local currencies. This system was responsible for nearly 10% of exports from Brazil to Argentina by 2012. I estimate the effect of eliminating foreign currency risk via the SML system by leveraging plausibly exogenous municipal variation in access to authorized financial institutions. Using a triple difference design, I find that municipalities with high access to the SML system exported 22% more to Argentina relative to other South American export destinations compared to municipalities with low access. Applying estimates of the trade elasticity from the literature, this effect is equivalent to reducing trade barriers by approximately 10%. I complement this finding with a firm-level analysis using confidential customs data. Export transactions through the SML system were on average 44% larger than otherwise similar transactions. In a stylized model of export behavior, I discuss these results as stemming from export frictions such as risk aversion or currency fees.