均衡实际汇率的估计有多稳健:以中国为例

S. Dunaway, Lamin Y Leigh, Xiangmin Li
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引用次数: 111

摘要

根据“基本”决定因素对一国实际汇率相对于其“均衡”价值的评估受到了越来越多的关注。本文以中国为例,说明了通常用于推导均衡实际汇率估计的模型。估计中的巨大差异引发了对这些结果的稳健性的严重质疑。基本结论是,至少对中国来说,模型规格、解释变量定义和估算中使用的时间段的微小变化可能导致均衡实际汇率估算的非常大的差异。因此,应该非常谨慎地对待这种估计。版权所有2009作者。期刊汇编2009年布莱克威尔出版亚洲有限公司
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China
Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
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