{"title":"均衡实际汇率的估计有多稳健:以中国为例","authors":"S. Dunaway, Lamin Y Leigh, Xiangmin Li","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00455.x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2006-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"111","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China\",\"authors\":\"S. Dunaway, Lamin Y Leigh, Xiangmin Li\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00455.x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd\",\"PeriodicalId\":134313,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2006-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"111\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00455.x\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00455.x","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China
Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd