使用RL10上级发动机的发射系统的成功和成熟度评估的历史调查

S. Go
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引用次数: 9

摘要

普惠公司的RL10发动机生产线有着悠久而丰富的历史,从1958年开始一直持续到今天。本文对1962年至2005年使用RL10发动机衍生产品的运载火箭进行了历史总结。历史发射数据用于导出上层配置RL10发动机的飞行器的基线发射成功率和增长曲线。因为它是第一个液氢燃料火箭发动机,RL10发动机的发射历史为研究革命性的新复杂系统的成熟趋势提供了一个独特的机会。本次调查中使用的所有数据都是通过公开渠道获得的。在1962年和2005年之间总共发射了190辆配置了RL10上层发动机的车辆。有12次上一级失败,要么未能进入轨道,要么进入了一个较低的、意外的轨道。早期的失败主要是由于系统交互和操作飞行条件方面的知识差距。由于飞行经验和更彻底的测试程序,随着系统知识的提高,早期发展增长有一个明显的趋势,最终达到平台期。然而,由于基于过程的问题(制造技术、质量控制等)而导致的失败,似乎并没有表现出成熟度的增长。最终,随着基于知识的失败被移除,这些基于过程的失败成为主要的风险驱动因素。使用成熟的、高度可靠的部件的飞行器仍然容易受到过程或功能变化的影响,这种类型的故障在飞行经验中相当普遍地发生。为了提高未来对这类系统的可靠性评估,了解基于知识和基于过程的问题之间的趋势和关系,并确定哪一类问题目前占主导地位是很重要的。应该指出的是,在12个上层故障中,只有一个是由有缺陷的部件引起的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A historical survey with success and maturity estimates of launch systems with RL10 upper stage engines
Pratt & Whitney's RL10 engine line has a long and rich history, beginning in 1958 and continuing today. This paper provides a historical summary of launch vehicles using RL10 engine derivatives dating from 1962 - 2005. The historical launch data is used to derive baseline launch success rates and growth curves for vehicles configured with RL10 engines in the upper stage.Because it was the first liquid hydrogen fueled rocket engine, the RL10 engine launch history provides a unique opportunity to investigate the maturity trends for revolutionary new complex systems. All of the data used in this survey was acquired through publicly-available sources. In all, 190 vehicles configured with RL10 upper stage engines were launched between 1962 and 2005. There were 12 upper stage failures that either failed to reach orbit, or reached a lower, unintended orbit. The early failures were dominated by knowledge gaps in system interactions and operational flight conditions. There is a clear trend of early development growth with an eventual plateau as system knowledge improved as a result of flight experience and more thorough test programs. Failures due to process-based issues (fabrication techniques, quality control, etc.), however, do not appear to exhibit maturity growth. Eventually, as the knowledge-based failures are removed, these process-based failures become the dominant risk driver. Vehicles that use mature, highly-reliable components are still vulnerable to process or functional changes, and failures of this type occur fairly uniformly with flight experience. In order to improve future reliability estimates for such systems, it is important to understand the trends and relationship between the knowledge-based and process-based issues, and determine which class of issues currently dominates. It should be noted that of the 12 upper stage failures, only one was caused by a defective part.
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