A historical survey with success and maturity estimates of launch systems with RL10 upper stage engines

Pratt & Whitney's RL10 engine line has a long and rich history, beginning in 1958 and continuing today. This paper provides a historical summary of launch vehicles using RL10 engine derivatives dating from 1962 - 2005. The historical launch data is used to derive baseline launch success rates and growth curves for vehicles configured with RL10 engines in the upper stage.Because it was the first liquid hydrogen fueled rocket engine, the RL10 engine launch history provides a unique opportunity to investigate the maturity trends for revolutionary new complex systems. All of the data used in this survey was acquired through publicly-available sources. In all, 190 vehicles configured with RL10 upper stage engines were launched between 1962 and 2005. There were 12 upper stage failures that either failed to reach orbit, or reached a lower, unintended orbit. The early failures were dominated by knowledge gaps in system interactions and operational flight conditions. There is a clear trend of early development growth with an eventual plateau as system knowledge improved as a result of flight experience and more thorough test programs. Failures due to process-based issues (fabrication techniques, quality control, etc.), however, do not appear to exhibit maturity growth. Eventually, as the knowledge-based failures are removed, these process-based failures become the dominant risk driver. Vehicles that use mature, highly-reliable components are still vulnerable to process or functional changes, and failures of this type occur fairly uniformly with flight experience. In order to improve future reliability estimates for such systems, it is important to understand the trends and relationship between the knowledge-based and process-based issues, and determine which class of issues currently dominates. It should be noted that of the 12 upper stage failures, only one was caused by a defective part.