2021年2月的德克萨斯州深度冻结:发生了什么和吸取了教训?

P. Hartley, Kenneth Medlock III, E. Hung
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摘要

2021年2月18日,来自冬季风暴乌里的极端冰冻温度、雪和冰袭击了德克萨斯州。休斯顿、达拉斯和圣安东尼奥的最低气温分别为13华氏度、2华氏度和5华氏度。由德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会(ERCOT)运营的电网几乎发生了灾难性的故障,该委员会为德克萨斯州的大多数电力用户提供服务。数以百万计的ERCOT用户遭受了数天的停电。虽然没有测量真实的电力需求,但预测的需求与8月下午4小时的高峰需求相匹配,但连续72小时。大范围停电的替罪羊包括风力发电机、火力发电机、天然气供应商、德克萨斯州对电网的反对、ERCOT管理以及ERCOT市场规则。虽然这些因素被认为是导致2021年2月ERCOT电网长时间停电的原因,但没有一个问题能完全解释这场灾难。所有形式的发电都经历了容量下降,但未能识别和解决燃料供应链上的风险是主要原因。此外,该通风口突出了间歇性发电资源扩大而没有足够的可用可调度发电能力所带来的风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Texas Deep Freeze of February 2021: What Happened and Lessons Learned?
Extreme freezing temperatures, snow, and ice from winter storm Uri afflicted Texas February 1418, 2021. Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio saw record-low temperatures of 13, -2, and 5 °F. The power grid operated by Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which serves most Texas power consumers, came close to catastrophic failure. Millions of ERCOT customers suffered blackouts for multiple days. Although true electricity demand was not measured, forecasted demand matched mid-afternoon 4-hour August peak demands, but for 72 consecutive hours. Scapegoats for the widespread outages included wind generators, thermal generators, natural gas suppliers, Texas opposition to interconnections, ERCOT management, and ERCOT market rules. Although these various factors were blamed for the extended power outage on the ERCOT electricity grid in February 2021, no single problem fully explains the calamity. All forms of generation experienced capacity deratings, but failure to identify and address risks along fuel supply chains was a major contributor. Moreover, the vent highlighted a growing risk associated with expanded intermittent generation resources without sufficient available, dispatchable generation capacity.
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