一种基于发电负荷平衡的风电系统可靠性预测方法

Xinlei Cai, Jinzhou Zhu, Xu Lin, Yanlin Cui, Xinglang Xie
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引用次数: 0

摘要

风力发电是安全的,可以持续开发利用。它是应对化石能源枯竭和火电、核电污染的新能源发电方式之一。然而,自然风的随机性较大,给风电系统的安全运行和风能并网带来了挑战。可靠性预测是提高风电系统安全运行能力的有效手段。因此,本文提出了一种基于风电系统风险和可靠性的预测分析方法。通过一组历史风电机组发电量和负荷数据,通过预测得到风电发电量与负荷之间的平衡关系;从发电负荷平衡的角度,对明年的负荷需求进行了预测。最后对一个算例进行了仿真,并将仿真结果与该风电场的实时数据进行了比较。仿真结果和实际数据验证了该方法的有效性,表明本文提出的方法能够有效地预测风电系统的电力负荷需求和可靠性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Method for the Reliability Prediction of Wind Power System based on Generation-Load Balance
Wind power is safe and can be developed and utilized sustainability. It is one of the new energy power generation methods to deal with the depletion of fossil energy and the pollution of thermal power and nuclear power. However, the randomness of natural wind is large, which brings challenges to the safe operation of wind power system and the grid connection of wind energy. Reliability prediction is an effective method to improve the safe operation ability of wind power system. Therefore, this paper proposes a prediction and analysis method based on the risk and reliability of wind power system. Through a set of historical wind turbine power generation and power load data, the balance relationship between wind power generation and load is obtained through prediction; From the perspective of balance between power generation and load, the load demand of the next year is predicted. Finally, an example is simulated, and the results are compared with the real-time data of the wind farm. The results of simulation and actual data verify the effectiveness of this method, which shows that the method proposed in this paper can effectively predict the power load demand and the reliability of wind power system.
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