A robust investment strategy for generation capacity in an uncertain demand and renewable penetration environment

With the growing environmental and energetic concern, the issue of adapting our energy systems is paramount. This paper deals with the issue of new optimal energy mixes in a high renewable energy share context, and capacity investment in such a framework. We use the “screening curve” method to determine competitors' investments and deduce the benefit of a conventional generator. This work is carried out using a robust approach i.e. we determine a threshold of benefit we want to reach with a defined probability no matter the actual demand and renewable penetration. To determine this solution, we consider four demand scenarii and levels of installed capacity both for wind and for photovoltaic energy. This work is undertaken for the French case. Some results are shown for a coal power plant with 2030 scenarii for demand, wind and solar capacity.