青藏高原地区不同年份气候变化研究综述 The Review of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region’s Climate Change in Different Years

本文通过介绍众多研究者对青藏高原地区多年气候变化的研究成果，归纳出了该地区从末次间冰期(125~75 ka BP)到2014年来的气候变化趋势和气候突变状况。通过分析尹云鹤等对青藏高原地区的气候变化的预测模型，总结出了该地区未来几十年内气候变化的趋势。分析表明：从末次间冰期(125~75 ka BP)到2014年来，青藏高原气候变化的总体趋势是气温升高且区域性特征增强。在末次间冰期，青藏高原气候变化剧烈，降温迅速且升温缓慢；到了近代，气温有加速上升的趋势，降水量波动变化较小，降水增加主要体现在春季和冬季。根据SRES A1B、A2、B2等不同情景预测的结果表明青藏高原地区在21世纪向湿暖方向发展，降水量增加并在21世纪中期达到最大值。 This article summarizes the climate change trend and mutative climate status of Qinghai-Tibet plateau from the last interglacial period (125-75 ka BP) to 2014 by studying the long-time research results of climate change of Qinghai-Tibet plateau from many researchers. And the trend of climate change in this region in the next few decades is summarized through the Yin Yunhe’s climate change prediction models on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The results showed that: from the last interglacial period (125-75 ka BP) to 2014, the overall trend of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau climate’s change was rising and its regional feature was strengthening; climate changed drastically during the last interglacial period on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, and the temperature decreased rapidly but increased slowly; in modern times, temperature had a tendency to accelerate, precipitation fluctuation changed little and it increased mainly in the spring and winter. According to the prediction results of different scenarios such as SRES A1B, A2, B2, it suggests that the climate of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in the 21st century will develop in the direction of wet and warm, and precipitation will increase and peak in the middle of the 21st century.