Adi Khoirul Azis, Kustanto Kustanto
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摘要

TIO ACCU面临的问题是难以根据消费者的需求提供库存,导致每个月的产品销售都有差异。本研究的目的是利用移动平均法建立一个电池销售预测系统。用于过去销售数据的移动平均算法没有季节性趋势或元素。该方法用于预测未来时期的电池销量。5个周期和31个销售数据的效度检验结果,MAD方法为3.90,MSE方法为20.09,MAPE方法为7.72%。同时,对29份销售数据进行7期效度检验,MAD方法的计算结果为3.70,MSE方法的计算结果为18.90,MAPE方法的计算结果为7.28%。采用移动平均法的电池销量预测系统测试结果运行良好,5期预测准确率为92.28%,7期预测准确率为92.72%,错误率小于10%,属于非常好的标准。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Penerapan Moving Average Pada Prediksi Penjualan Accu
The problem faced by TIO ACCU is the difficulty of providing stock according to consumer needed, it caused every month has difference sale of product.  The purpose of this research is to create a battery sales prediction system using the Moving Average method. The Moving Average algorithm used for past sales data doesn’t has seasonal trends or elements. This method is applied to predict the number of battery sales in future periods. The results from 5 periods and validity test with 31 sales data for the MAD method is 3.90, for the MSE method is 20.09, and for the MAPE method is 7.72%. Meanwhile, the results of calculation 7 periods with validity test of 29 sales data for the MAD method is 3.70, the MSE method is 18.90, and for the MAPE method is 7.28%. The test results of the battery sales prediction system using the Moving Average method have run well and optimally with accuracy rate of 92.28% for 5-period predictions and 92.72% for 7-period predictions can be classified as very good criteria, because it has an error rate of less than 10%. 
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